Hello Sylvestor80, <<Now taking bets on how many days after Bush attacks Iraq for a regime change that China attacks Taiwan for a regime change. Place your bets... >>
My bet, on your terms ... assuming the WAR on IRAQ takes place between now and November 2004 (high probability event), and further supposing that Taiwan/ROC is NOT peacefully absorbed socially and economically into the framework of Greater China by 2010 (lower probability event), and that Taiwan/ROC does NOT declare formal independence (high probability event), then Taiwan/ROC will receive Mainland China/PRC ultimatum at some point between 5,475 to 7,300 days from now, irregardless of whether WAR on IRAQ takes place, but not earlier.
My wager is given that 300 factories closed shop in Taiwan/ROC in the first 6 months of this year, at twice the rate of last year, and given that there are close to 1 mm of the most productive Taiwanese Chinese living and working in Mainland China/PRC already, peaceful unification will be fact within 10 years.
My observation: Taiwan Inc is literally being merged away as we post, and soon only the board of directors are left to be restructured in a palace coup.
Classical Chinese strategic thinking, of which both Taiwan/ROC and Mainland China/PRC officials are fully conversant in, rarely call for force of arms. The most brilliantly fought war is one that has no battles.
Another observation: The officialdom in Taiwan/ROC are master Public Relations agents making the best use of what they have ... money, and obtaining what they need, sympathy.
The officialdom in Mainland China/PRC are master strategists making the best use of what they have ... potential markets, and obtaining what they need, power.
Chugs, Jay |
