MY NEWSLETTER DATED SUNDAY SEPT THE 8TH 2 WEEKS AGO....WATCH YOUR TRADING CAPITAL FOR THE NEXT 4-6 WEEKS..BE ULTRA COOL OUT THERE...SCALPING FOR A DAYS PAY MAKES A WORLD OF SENSE TO ME RIGHT NOW..I AM "NOT" INVESTING JUST YET...AND HAVE NOT INVESTED ONE SINGLE DIME TO DATE...THAT TIME WILL SURELY COME VERY SOON...BEST REGARDS
OJ.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED SEPT 1ST 2002
A SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER
Hi there everyone...hope this letter finds you and yours in good health and fine spirits...
Well the summer is done, finished caput..And what a summer it's been..I can not remember a hotter one...Even the water down at the Jersey shore was hot<g>...Hope you all had some fun in the sun..it's now time to get back to the hard work of trading the markets..
There are so many scared traders out there right now, it makes you wonder...And what's their fear? WAR WITH IRAQ! Are they kidding?? What war?, no way this government goes to war alone unilaterally, without a coalition of partners to pave the way on the whys and wherefores of a potential attack...You may not agree with me, but I think this is rhetoric at it's best to get those inspectors back into IRAQ period...No way we attack...So everyone is too fearful of what that might do to the markets...forget it...Bush may be nuts, but he's not crazy, is he? hahahahahahaa
Given the time frame here of the dreaded Sept/Oct worst months scenario, what we have is a paralyzed market thru the fall...I do not like what is going on with the semis, this is stalling any meaningful rally in the NAZ...it cannot go up on fumes folks...and like I said there are NO orders, and it looks glum to be sure for those stocks..INTC has it's mid Q update this Thursday, and Barrett already implied it's not good...However there's a lot of bearishness out there in La La Land...Even though the bulls /bears popped bullish near term, I would think that will come down very fast this next week or two...
So what am I looking for just ahead??? A very volatile Sept, that will be tradable for sure...Let me tell you some Dorsey Wright Statistics on Sept's with the NYSE BP in X's...From 1955 to the present there were 16 Sept's with the NYSE BP in X's, of those 16, 11 of them or 70% were UP...from flat to 6%...31 Sept's with the NYSE BP in O's they were down during that time frame...What I am saying here is until and unless the NYSE BP reverses back down into O's and IT MIGHT FOLKS...I am staying this course..remember I only want to trade long thru late Sept or so, then short into Macro Cycle lows in Oct...If the NYSE reverses down earlier we could have a big time plunge before that fact...I'll be watching and alert you as to what transpires as we move forward this month..
BTW this month is TRIPLE WITCHING OPTIONS EXPIRATION MONTH, it always offers opportunity on both sides of the trades...the date is Friday the 20th so that week should be a doozie<g>...I would suspect what with all this WAR talk OIL & OIL related stocks would be a good place to allocate some money...I did and will address those trades below..and Gold stocks and index have broken out here..so you could trade both...Again I warn you NOT to be too frozen at the wheel thinking about IRAQ or for that matter even 9/11 looming large here shortly...If something happens, then there's absolutely nothing we can do about it..if you wish to STAND ASIDE thru this month, JUST DO IT..no big deal..you can play it safe if you wish..you do not have to trade every single day folks..I want you to be relaxed and NOT anxious about your money..
Better opportunity may arise out of events that lay just ahead...maybe...Remember this..Capital Preservation is paramount to staying the course...without those funds your dead meat...you're out of the game forever..so be smart here...no rush, no urgency, missed trades are just that...meaningless..lost money is a whole nuther ball game right???
There are a lot of mixed economic reports each week..some good some bad..the markets are vacillating up and down on every little news item..To me this is scared, nervous traders that have NO clue as to what to do...If you have a game plan, and trade that plan you'll be fine...please use stops at all cost..set your limits for your day trades to no more than .50 cents this month..and try to scalp out 30--50 cents early in the morning, then come back later and try to make that same good trade 1 more time..you'll be calm, relaxed and make a nice days pay systematically...
We've gotten so many nice testimonials from traders that took our online trading course..I want to thank you all, I appreciate it...It makes me feel good that you've grasped technical trading, and are beginning to make successful trades each day using my techniques...the more you SEE the patterns developed after drawing those important lines, the better you'll become...Don't forget to try to learn Point & Figure and or Candlestick charting..I recommend www.dorseywright.com for P&F, and Steve Nison's book for candlesticks...Buy Tom Dorsey's book and get a grasp of SOME TA here..you can not trade or invest without some form of technical analysis...I like the Top down approach, rather than the bottom up...Fundamentals do count..but we MUST know which way the markets are going first and foremost...
OK LET'S CHECK THE INDEXS ET ALL....
DJIA---THE NYSE BP IS AT 43% AND HOLDING FOR NOW...ON THE 100 POINT CHART WE HAVE PULLED BACK TO A "NORMAL" NUMBER HERE NAMELY 8600...8900 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP, AND 8300 THE BREAKDOWN AREA OF THE DOUBLE BOTTOM...WATCH 8550 HERE FOR THE TRIGGER SHORT...
NAZ/COMPX---TO ME THIS INDEX IS DO OR DIE RIGHT NOW...WE RALLIED UP NICELY OFF THE JULY LOWS TO MY TARGET OF 1420, A DOUBLE TOP, ROLLED OVER AND STRAIGHT DOWN TO 1300 LAST WEEK...THEN WE REVERSED BACK UP 3 BOXES, USING THE 10 POINT PER BOX CHART...1290 BREAK WOULD BE A NO NO TO THE DOWNSIDE..AND IF WE BROKE 8550 DOW I WOULD EXIT ALL LONGS..
AGAIN..LET ME REPEAT..IF WE BREAK 1290 ON HEAVY VOLUME AND 8550 DOW I'LL EXIT LONGS AND GO SHORT...I WOULD HOLD OIL STOCKS AND MO...
SOX---THE WEAKEST LINK HERE...INTC WILL BE THE KEY THIS WEEK..IT MAY BREAK AHEAD OF THE THURSDAY REPORT...280 IS A BIG BREAKDOWN AREA TAKES IT RIGHT TO 220, AND THE NAZ WITH IT...360 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP...BTW..THE SEMI BP HAS "NOT" REVERSED DOWN YET??? AMAZING..BUT IT'S JUST 1% AWAY..36% IS THAT NUMBER...
BTK---STILL OK HERE AND HOLDING WELL ON THIS EXPECTED PULLBACK...IT TOPPED OUT AT 400 BUT SPIKED THRU THE BRL LINE...REVERSED DOWN HERE TO MY TARGET OF 350ISH..IT COULD GO TO 340..BUT THATS THE BSL...THE SECTOR BP IS AT 31.90% STILL OK A MOVE TO 28% WOULD REVERSE IT DOWN...IT TOUCHED 34%...
NDX---IDENTICAL CHART AS THE NAZ...920 IS THE BREAKDOWN AREA...970 KEEPS IT GOING..WATCHING HERE..
SPX---HOLDING STRONG SO FAR...IT BROKE THAT SPREAD TRIPLE TOP AT 930 AND NOW HAS PULLED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 910 THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...940 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP(3BXRVUP) AND 900 KEEPS IT IN O'S...
OEX---VERY NICE INDEX CHART AND TRADABLE FOLKS...POPPED AT 465 AND THE PB(PULL BACK) LAST WEEK TOOK IT ONLY TO 455 RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE...470 IS GOOD, 440 IS BAD..COULD SHORT THIS IF WE BREAK THOSE NUMBERS ABOVE ON THE NAZ/DOW..
VIX---AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE..IT RAN RIGHT UP TO MY UPSIDE TARGET...IT ROLLED OVER AND DOWN HERE, AND ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC) THERE'S DARK CLOUD COVER...BULLISH..WE COULD GET A SHORT POP UP MAKING ANOTHER LOWER TOP THEN A PLUNGE BELOW 30...
VXN---SAME THING..EXPLODED OFF THAT BREAKOUT AT 50 HIT 60 JUST ABOVE MY TARGET AND ROLLED OVER WITH DARK CLOUD COVER ON THE DCC...MAYBE WE GET A LOWER HIGH THIS WEEK, THEN CRASH AND BURN?
SO THIS WEEK COULD ACTUALLY SET UP THE MARKETS FOR A BIG RALLY, OR A LARGE DECLINE.,.,YOU HAVE THE NUMBERS SET ALERTS PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!
HERE'S THE STOCKS WE LOVE TO TRADE...WELL LOVE AND HATE<VBG>
MO---MY ONE SHINING MOMENT<G> UP FROM A FULL POSITION AT 48 BUCKS HIT 51.75 WHOA! STILL LONG AND HOLDING HERE...I HAVE 53 AS MY TARGET...P&F CHART LOOKS FINE HERE...51 BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)...49 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER(SST)...
MSFT---STILL LONG HERE AND MAY ADD IF WE BEGIN TO MOVE UP...IT BROKE THRU THE BRL(BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE) AND TOUCHED 52...PULLED BACK 4 BOXES TO 49...52 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL UP..48 KEEPS IT GOING DOWN...THERE WAS A HEAVY 15 MINUTE BAR SELLING STICK ON FRIDAY..I WOULD JUST WAIT FOR 51.50 TO TAKE IT LONG...WITH VOLUME...47.75 THE SST..
AMGN---I ADDED AMGN ON FRIDAY AT 45.85 IT RAN UP TO 46.55...IT MUST NOT BREAK 44...45 IS SOLID SUPPORT(S) SO FAR...46.10 THE BTL---43.75 THE SST...AND A GOOD ONE...I'LL USE THAT AS MY STOP...
CCMP---I WISH THEY WOULD STOP SELLING THIS OFF<g>...I PICKED UP THE SECOND 1/2 AT 42.48 NOW HAVE A FULL POSITION AVERAGED OUT AT 43.00..NO BIGGIE...A 3BXRVUP IS 44, THAT WOULD CHANGE THE TREND BACK TO POSITIVE...IT HAS SOLID S AT 38..MAN I DO NOT WANT IT THERE...I'LL BE LONG GONE...43.50 THE BTL...41.40 THE SST...
CHIR---WOW THIS IS ONE STRONG STOCK HERE FOLKS...EXPLODED UP OFF THAT BREAKOUT AREA AT 32 RAN UP TO 42 AND JUST NOW REVERSED BACK DOWN TO 38...ANY MOVE UP IN THE MARKETS WE'LL TAKE THIS ONE LONG AND STRONG..IT'S A POWERHOUSE STOCK..AND OH BTW.. A PREFECT PB(PULL BACK) TO THE RISING 20 EMA DAILY...39 THE BTL...41 KEEPS YOU IN THIS TRADE.,.43 A BIG BIG BREAKOUT THERE..36.70 THE SST...
ESV---AN OIL STOCK I PICKED UP AT 26.54...GOOD LOOKING CHART AND COULD ROCK UP HERE ON THIS IRAQ/CRAP...27.25 THE BTL...25.95 THE SST..
SLB---I AM LONG AT 45 AS POSTED..THE TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT AREA...JUST KIND OF MEANDERING AROUND HERE GOING NOWHERE YET?...44.25 THE BTL...46 STAY LONG...42.25 THE SST...
FRX---THE DRUGGIE I OWN<G>...STILL TRYING TO HOLD HERE...HAD A TON OF NEWS..AND REALLY DID NOT RESPOND TOO GOOD..I MIGHT DUMP IT SOON...74.25 THE BTL...72 THE SST...WITH 70.75 MY STOP...
IBM---I REALLY LIKE THIS STOCK AND CHART...SOLID PULL BACK..I AM IN AT 78.32 A BIT TOO EARLY...BUT I THINK WE'LL TURN UP SOON...76.50 THE BTL...79 THE 3BXRVUP...74 THE SST...
BBH---I'M IN A BIT OF TROUBLE WITH THIS ONE..LONG AT 85.10 COULD HAVE TRADED IT 10 TIMES AND SCALPED OUT NICE GAINS EACH DAY?...BUT WAS LOOKING FOR A BIGGER RETURN...83.75 THE BTL...81.50 THE SST..AND MY STOP...
OIH---I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS INDEX FOR AWHILE NOW..PICKED UP SOME AT 53.55 AND IT'S CERTAINLY NOT TOO LATE TO PLAY IT LONG HERE...WHAT WITH ALL THIS TALK ABOUT INVASIONS, AND CRUDE FLYING UP..OCT CRUDE IS MOVING UP HERE FOR THE MOMENT...54.25 THE BTL...56 KEEPS YOU LONG TRAILING UP A STOP LOSS...52.30 THE SST..AND ANY BREAK OF 51.75 THAT WOULD BE BAD..THATS MY STOP...
CEPH---JUST BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 42 RIGHT AT THE BSL LINE.....I AM LONG THIS STOCK AND UNDERWATER..I WILL LOOK TO EXIT ON ANY RALLY UP...44.55 THE BTL...42.25 THE SST...
GDT---A VERY NICE HEALTHCARE STOCK CHART ON P&F...IT'S IN A BULLISH TRIANGLE FORMATION AT THE BRL LINE...I THINK IT WILL BREAK UP AND OUT HERE..MARKET WILLING...37 THE BTL...39 WOULD BE SWEET...35.50 THE SST...
APOL---SUPER LOOKING CHART HERE...HIGHER HIGHS AND LOWS...READY TO CONTINUE ON UP...43.25 THE BTL WAIT FOR IT...44 IS THE DOUBLE TOP BREAKOUT ON P&F...AND A NEW 52 WEEK HIGH HERE BUCKING THE ENTIRE MARKET...40.75 THE SST...
BZH---THEY KEEP HAMMERIN' THE ONLY SECTOR MAKING MAJOR MONEY???..BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 64..NOT NICE..I AM LONG HERE...65.20 THE BTL..AND IT MUST TAKE OUT FRIDAYS HOD...63.00 THE SST...BUBBLE THIS!!!!
EBAY---HOLDING SOLID S HERE AT AROUND 55/56 SO FAR..DOJI ON FRIDAY HOWEVER...57.75 THE BTL...55.40 THE SST..53 KEEPS YOU SS..
QLGC---LOOKING WEAKER HERE..IT MUST HOLD...34.35 THE BTL...32.45 THE SST...
QCOM---ALWAYS HAD SUPER S AT 25 ARE WE HEADED THERE AGAIN???...28.75 THE VERY GOOD BTL...30 THE 3BXRVUP...26.75 THE SST...
NEWP---EXPLODED UP OUT OF THAT GIGANTIC SIDEWAYS BASE AT 17 TOUCHED THE DOUBLE TOP AT 19, THEN? FELL LIKE A STONE? WHEW!!!...16.20 THE BTL...14.95 THE SST...
INTC----WELL? THEY HAVE THAT CC ON THURS...EITHER IT BREAKS DOWN HARD OR IT TAKES THE WHOLE DAMN MARKET UP WITH IT...IT'S DOWN NEAR THE LOWER END OF THIS LONG LONG BASE...16.25 THE SST...WITH ANY MEANINGFUL BREAK OF 16 TROUBLE..THE JULY LOWS WERE 16...17.10 THE BTL...18.50 THE REVERSAL BACK UP...
OK MY CYBER TRADING BUDDIES..GOOD LUCK THIS SHORTENED WEEK...STAY VERY FAST AND LOOSE..
USE STOPS AND RELAX..ALL THE BEST
JERRY
Jerry Olson
MasterClassTraders.com
jerry@masterclasstraders.com
buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com |
