Yes, it is hard to find good news these days. I have been paying closer attention to what some of the brokerage houses and analysts have been saying the past several months, and are still saying. Many of them are very negative on the semi-equips.
Trying to summarize their position in broad general terms, the bottom is not in yet and will be several quarters away. They expect bookings to continue downward for "awhile" and see no quick reversal. The tables on earnings estimates just posted, and the trend in earnings estimates over the past few weeks have been downward.
We will have another data point this coming Wednesday on orders, billings and BtB, if SEMI posts the results for July as scheduled, 9/18, after the market close.
Also, while there is still some potential "bottoming" going on, for the past 6 weeks, the 4 semi-equip stocks in the SOX, AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, and TER have not changed anywhere near the change in the prior 11 weeks. Lets just look at the numbers at 3 data points.
Stock -----5/17------8/5-----9/13
AMAT ----27.31-----12.76----13.03
KLAC ----60.11-----35.05----31.65
NVLS ----51.32-----24.03----23.85
TER ----31.17-----13.04----12.30
Are the latest numbers going to hold as the base area? Darned if I know, but any kind of good news should have a positive impact while everyone is expecting the worst.
Don |
