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Non-Tech : The ENRON Scandal

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To: Mephisto who started this subject9/15/2002 7:07:26 PM
From: Mephisto  Read Replies (1) of 5185
 
Oil Prices and the Drums of War
The New York Times
September 15, 2002

nytimes.com

By KENNETH N. GILPIN


The following is an excerpt:

Q. So even if there is a war with Iraq, you don't see prices spiking much from here?

A. I think upside price risk is very controllable. The case of an
uncontrollable upside would be if Saudi Arabia were unwilling or unable to increase
production. But the odds of that happening are very, very long.

I am not a Middle East expert, but I don't imagine the Iraqis have had
a lot of money to upgrade their missiles.

Right now Iraq is just not producing that much oil.
They are pumping 700,000 to 800,000 barrels a day. A decade ago,
they were at 3.5 million barrels a day.


The Saudis, who have the capacity to pump an additional 4 million barrels
a day above their current production level, have pledged to make up the
shortfall if Iraqi oil becomes unavailable.

Q. Would oil prices soften if there were a change in government in Iraq?

A. It will take a long, long time for Iraq to gear up production. At best,
they could keep production flat for two years. Then they could start to grow it a
bit. They have huge reserves.

nytimes.com
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