What are the boards thoughts if War, which seems likely happens in IRAQ. How about if through UN action there is no war after all, then what. Here are some possabilities:
1. We attack Iraq, are immensely successful, people of Iraq swarm around us to form a friendly Democratic Government. Palestinians see the advantage of establishing Democracy, throw out Arafat and form, with USA help a friendly, peaceful government coexisting with Israel. Saudi Arabia sees the handwriting on the wall and moves swiftly to forge even stronger ties with USA. Price of oil drops significantly.
2. We attack Iraq, get bogged down in a bloody protracted war, suffer immense casualties from released weapons of mass destruction and escalate up heaviest weapons in our arsennal excluding Nukes. People of Iraq become Partisans fighting against the American and Coalition forces there to free them from tyranny. Entire Middle East erupts in violence oil fields are cut off from the Industrialized World and price of oil ESCALATES wildly. Israel is attacked on all fronts and reacts with bloody reprisals.
3. UN insists in strongly worded language that Saddam agree to UN inspections, which he does but which go no where due to inability for limited inspectors to pin down constantly moving labs. Saddam ultimately gets his nukes and delivers them and biologicals to Terrorists for use against the West principally USA.
To me, those are the possabilities here. Seems to me each of them has as much or more effect on the stock market as any of the individual companies efforts. Thus, I would think one should make their investment decisions first by determining which of the above is most likely to occur.
IMHO if #1 occurs the World Economy will take off like a shot and we will return to old highs in the market.
If #2 were to happen the worlds economies and the market will collapse into the worse depression seen in mankind history. If #3 were to occur the market would initially have a nice upward bounce until slowly the reality of the situation becomes apparent at which time we will start a dismal spiral.
So, take your pick and take your chances. JDN |
