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Strategies & Market Trends : AL is Not a Human Being

QQQ 611.67

-1.9%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: lifeisgood who wrote (571)	9/16/2002 7:25:41 PM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) of 793

"VXN was almost 25% higher in early August and is presently on the lower end of it's 3-month range." Al doesn't care where $VXN is in its 3 mth range. Do you have any data as to how where $VXN is in its 3 mth range can be used as an indicator? Besides, the 3 mth range is 44.35 - 71.51 It closed today at $57.73. That's almost exactly in the middle of the range - not quite the "lower end". You need to look at how $VXN has moved since a recent inflection point in relation to the move in $NDX since the same point in time. $VXN is up over 28% since Aug 22. $NDX in that time is down just under 14%. IMO that's "a healthy dose of fear". The absolute value since a major top or bottom is irrelevant. Aug 5 was a major multi year low for $NDX. You could have said "$VXN was higher on July 26. That is hardly indicative of fear" but you would have missed an important bottom.

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