Tom, while I agree with you that a "steeple" top is very unlikely, that is, market is not going to crash right off the top, for obvious reasons, and that a 300 points DJIA drop is no big deal, by historical standards, several comments:
(i) <<But mark my word, when the top is in place many bears will have been suckered in and so will most of the public--it is the ways most tops have occurred.>>
Are you implying the public is NOT in the market NOW? Or, that most "bears" were not net long stocks, or foreign stocks a week ago?
(ii) Your scenario of a 10% correction, followed by another intermediate rally - what is is based on? [to repeat you question to Kahooniacks -g-] Besides the fact that the market has not crashed yet? I don't think you, or anybody, may really know.
(iii) I think you will not deny the intermediate uptrend line from April lows was broken last Fri.
(iv) And why do you consider runiing up large caps like MOT, HWP, CPQ, DELL, etc etc. 20% or more in a few trading days to be NOT speculation? Large caps making 7 and 10% intraday moves is not speculation? I hope you don't expect Bre-X to get to 50 again? IMHO, there was plenty of wild speculation in last month, for example.
Again, it is up to each of us to have own opinion as to the future, and, as we see, even to what happened recently. And, again, I'm with you on many interpretations and conclusions, particularly as regards what's relevant for practical action.
Joe |
