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To: Lucretius who started this subject9/16/2002 11:37:35 PM
From: TheStockFairy  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Comments? Can housing stocks double from this point?

Re: Time to short!!!
by: kirkpul 09/16/02 02:16 pm
Msg: 2371 of 2375

"If now sounds like the time to buy, when would you think the time to sell would be?
-willtan1

CYCLICAL INDUSTRY - PE will double, triple when sales drop and inventory gets HUGE.
-stocktonite"

Thanks for asking/commenting. The time to sell will be when KBH gets up to the PE, PEG (price to earnings growth) and price to book ratios approximating the market. That will require a very roughly doubling or more of the stock price. As for the chance that stocktonite's prediction that PE's will double or triple while inventories shoot up will come true, it doesn't look very likely. KBH is a lean mean money machine, with a just in time operating system. Practically all their homes are ordered by customers who have made substantial down payments. They build virtually no homes on speculation, hoping a buyer will materialize. When the inevitable slowdown in homebuilding occurs, they will not suffer much. Their share of U.S. home sales is increasing, they are a major French builder, and management owns a big chunk of stock, making them entrepreneurial. Think WalMart, not KMart.
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