Jules,
When I first purchased shares of INTC in January of 1996, I was careful to establish an earnings profile, PE analysis, margin analysis, etc (following the NAIC Stock Selection Guide) methodology to come up with a concept of whether or not the stock was a good value. At the time, the PE was something like 9 on a TTM basis. Earnings forward looked nicely assured... In short, it was, in my eyes, a clear value. I tried to look out 5 years and anticipated that, in buying at 50 where I established my position, a price of 100 to 120 seemed reasonable within 5 years. Clearly I underestimated the potential. The run up to the 160 (80+ after split) is great, but now my analysis is not so clear.
Anyway, my question. On what basis could Intel be a real buy right now. It seems that on a PE basis, it is near the high end of its historical range. PE expansion is a great thing, but on what rationale can we depend on that. It is difficult to imagine that the growth rates for revenue or earnings can continue. This thread is great because I can keep up with news, rumors, and shots across the bow of AMD and others, but have you any recent analysis of Intel? I don't really see selling it at this point even though it is far beyond my projected 'sell' range of a few years ago. I am not a trader, but I have made a lot of money on Intel in a very short span. My inclination is to use some of that money to fund the purchase of other companies that I can see doubling in 5 years or less. Frankly, Intel has just amazed me. I couldn't say that Intel would not be at 160 within 5 years, but I sure don't have anything that would rationally indicate that it would be either.
Any thoughts?
J |
