Bill and Britt ,
Have formatted three scenarios from opinions posted on this thread, including my own.
1 . Roger A. Babb is right, top was July 16th . Bill's scenario will start they way he says, but will turn sour failing to reach a new high, and starting the long way down.
2 . Randy Kay is right. Thursday was just a scare off. In which case the market will start not much lower on Monday morning and will make a new high by the end of the week. This would give us two more weeks at the most. Britt takes the jackpot.
3 . Everybody's right: Down Monday , will make new high in a few trading days, will run out of air and drop. Mohan takes the jackpot, and reclaims Guru status.
Note most entries see all times high just around the corner. No 12000 predictions.
The turning point itself is not as important as catching the change in drift.
The 15 years bull market has nothing to offer anymore, even in the far fetched possibility that we'll see 10000 by year end . After a 900% gain in the big caps, Lord knows how much in techs, another 10-20% rise is nothing to look forward to. Since I hear nobody saying 12000 I suggest permabear approach. 100% cash until the change of trend, and then as many calls as you can write, with selected puts and shorts. ( Buy just out of the money puts on low volatility stocks and indexes i.e. KO, write calls on high volatility stocks i.e. techs, short at your discretion.)
I give much weight to Bill's opinion on Monday session. This way I'll start shouting "wolf" same day, as S&P 500 will cross 900 and creating a new local low that would put the lid on the bubble.
My entry- 8488 (8512 intraday) on August 5th , though I'd like to bet on Roger's and Mohan's calls on the market as well.
Arik
Don't Panic (yet). |
