Hi Joe--to respond to the points you made
>>Are you implying the public is NOT in the market NOW? Or, that most "bears" were not net long stocks, or foreign stocks a week ago?<<
I am implying that the kind of capitulation that one looks for at major tops is not there yet--most of the public is in the market by virtue of their 401K money and other types of similar investing. I can't prove this to you other than to cite the huge amount of money that is still in money market funds--if my foggy memory serves me right it was over a trillion and at any rate in the hundreds of billions. I know that you mentioned anecdotal evidence of speculation in the markets by people that you know or have heard of--I don't have the same experience with the people that I know, as yet. May be we just move with different crowds.
>>(ii) Your scenario of a 10% correction, followed by another intermediate rally -what is is based on? [to repeat you question to Kahooniacks -g-] Besides the fact that the market has not crashed yet? I don't think you, or anybody, may really know<<
You are dead on here--I don't know what is going to happen--I was giving my guesstimate, for what it is worth--which is very little:) Besides, I said that I doubt that we'll see even a 10% correction --more like 902 or 880 on the SPX--the former equates to a 4% and the latter to 7% -- but these are also guesstimates.
I remain very confident that this will be followed by another rally because of the strong momentum of the previous move, the lack of divergences--plus the fact that the monetary environment is conducive to the market.
>>I think you will not deny the intermediate uptrend line from April lows was broken last Fri<<
Joe, I am not very good with trend-lines--but I took a look at it after reading your post and I don't think that it has been violated yet--but it is close. I could be wrong--I don't usually use trend lines for trading.
>>And why do you consider runiing up large caps like MOT, HWP, CPQ,
DELL, etc etc. 20% or more in a few trading days to be NOT speculation? Large caps making 7 and 10% intraday moves is not speculation?<<
Let's just say that I view the speculation and froth that comes with major tops as involving third and fourth tier stocks.
>>I hope you don't expect Bre-X to get to 50 again?
No, but I wish BGO would get to 10, so that I can get the hell out of it:)
>>IMHO, there was plenty of wild speculation in last month, for example<<
I guess "wild speculation" like beauty is in the eye of the beholder:)
>>Again, it is up to each of us to have own opinion as to the future, and, as we see, even to what happened recently<<
On this we are agreed--everyone needs to do their thing and what they are comfortable with.
>>And, again, I'm with you on many interpretations and conclusions, particularly as regards what's relevant for practical action<<
Now that you and I both agree on what the appropriate practical action is -- the market will probably prove us both wrong:)
Take care |
