The Curse of the Dubya
The New York Times
September 15, 2002
By DAVID E. SANGER
THIS has been a dreadful year for the stock market. The Dow Jones
industrial average, for example, is down 17 percent since Jan. 1. The
reasons given for such dismal performance are familiar by now: terrorism,
corporate and Wall Street corruption, the business cycle, which
demanded a downturn after the long years of growth.
But what if there's another, real, reason?
What if there is a curse of the Dubya?
Wall Street practitioners - who need a fall guy - note that President Bush's
big addresses to the nation this year have largely been greeted by
market drops.
It's true. Sort of. But not entirely.
By market measures, last week was a bad one for Mr. Bush.
The president's powerful indictment of Iraq in the United Nations
may have converted some to his cause, but was followed by a 202
point drop in the Dow.
The White House shrugged it off, pointing out that the real measure of success
is whether allies who had been skeptical of confronting Saddam
Hussein are now re-thinking their position.
"The real question," one administration official said, trying his best
not to sound defensive, "is how did the Iraqi market do?"
After Mr. Bush's last big speech, about corporate conduct,
the Dow dropped 179 points. And after one at the Reichstag
in Berlin it fell 112 points.
True, the year started well: the State of the Union speech, in
which Iraq, Iran and North Korea were famously described as an
"Axis of Evil," led to a rally the next day of 144 points. But then again,
on the day of the speech the market opened at 9,618, a level investors would be
happy to see today.
It closed Friday at 8312.69, and this is only September. More presidential
speeches loom, mostly about nuclear disarmament and the prospect of
war, subjects the markets never like - no matter who is speaking about them.
nytimes.com
Copyright 2002 The New York Times |
