MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 685.40

+1.2%

Jan 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who started this subject	9/17/2002 9:13:20 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Vxn still appears to be in an uptrend and is now at 60......still significantly below 70 where the July lows occurred and well below the 90+ reading of the Sept 2001 low. So there is still room for this decline to continue. stockcharts.com[e,a]daclyyay[d20010101,20021231][pb7!b20!i][vc60][iLa20,26,9!Le22,33,13][J6325514,Y]&pref=G Nasdaq new lows have increased to 177, but could run to 500+ if the market is putting in a retest of the July bottom. Only time will tell, but on the positive side, the put/call ratio is now at 1.2 and the 4 day moving average is at 1.02....very bullish readings. My timing model signaled a return to 100% cash on tomorrow's open from the current 25% short position. Ytd the model is up 12% versus qqq which is down 44%..... but well below my expectation of at least 25% gain annually. The way the indicators are lining up I would expect a signal to go 100% long soon, so maybe I can still beat that 25% target if the market will cooperate and give us a fourth quarter rally. Tom

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