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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Bilow who wrote (44546)	9/17/2002 9:16:00 PM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (2) of 281500

Carl, What tipped Saddam over was the Saudis saying they'd support military action if the UN went for it. His military and his support would dissolve almost instantly if US lead forces went into Iraq. The guy's a psychopath and the only thing that will ever make them move in directions they don't like is force, or a very convincing threat of force. It looked like the threat of force became convincing. My prediction: if there is any sign of UN dissension or falling resolve on part of US, he will start his games with the inspectors again. And it's a sure thing he will certainly increase his support of Hezbollah, Hamas and al Qaida. It's almost a sure thing that he'll try and weasel out of the "no conditions." ............. If I were Bush, I'd let things roll along on the inspections scene and continue to grow clear relations with Iraqis in the North and South - keep giving them materiel and technical aid and getting them to talk to each other. Be interesting to see if Bush's folk have a plan B. I think this is great news and calls for major celebrations. It's not really great news if you're an Iraqi with family murdered, imprisoned, tortured or exiled by Saddam and if you're an Iraqi looking at the prospect of more of the same. It may be good news for the Israelis who have to do something about all the heavy weapons build up to their North because that problem is now (apparently) being uncoupled from the US invasion of Iraq. It's great news for some Saudis who probably peed their pants when Bush said his goal was democracy in the ME. It's great news for the governments of failed states who will feel reprieved from having to clean up their acts. Thus it's great news for some al Qaida types.

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