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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.545

-0.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: sylvester80 who wrote (20844)	9/17/2002 9:38:57 PM
From: BWAC	of 21876

<can not last for more than another 6 months without some major disruption in service.> That I agree on. Maybe 6 to 12 months or as soon as some application evolves to suck up more bandwidth. But I don't agree that they could not have foreseen the capital spending dropoff. Maybe not of this size. But a drop off was due nonetheless. And they all went merrily along adding costs and expenses. Totally unprepared for an overdue period on consolidation. Its not like the capital spending has been cut-off for the first time ever. You had a period in early '93 that stunk as the internet became mainstream, one again in late '94 after a buildup for 28.8 modems, another in '97 after 56k was the thing, and now another (the worst) in 2001 thru 2002 as broadband is the thing. Soon there will be something that obsoletes it all. The equipment vendors must remove themselves from being a pawn to the carriers. Cut capacity, cut expenses, consolidate themselves, prepare to make some money when the carriers come back to spend. Not just to breakeven when spending resumes. Lucent and the others need to turn the supply demand equation in their favor. The carriers can't stall for ever, even though they might try.

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