nobody seems to ponder effect of RealEstate faltering
the leverage as you point out is huge with RE
even larger recently since 0% down deals are prevalent
imagine how many walk away from their equity as the broker did
the key data point I have read in recent weeks is that increased cashouts from REFI's has added to debt loads, but simultaneous econ data shows consumer spending and business spending is down !!!
with individual retailers reporting poor topline, poor earnings, and poor guidance, the USGovt (for shit) retail numbers are left to be doubted
check the seasonalizing chicanery, dear reader
that is the Usual Suspect in Statistical Deception
(I am a professional statistician, although an gnome-like unattractive one, and was in charge of Staples seasonality analysis for sales forecasting)
so what happens when RE-based money creation reverses?
a lot of badass shit
it seems to me that a great many bad signals are coming at once:
mortbacked bonds are turning down
consumer spending is slowing
business spending is extinct
durable good purchases are slowing fast (not sznalized data)
leading econ indicators heading south
treasury yields looking like Japan, yet another bubble
mortgage delinquencies and defaults higher than last recession
personal bankruptcies rising dangerously
coporate bankruptcies rising dangerously
IPO business a virtual desert
jobless claims rising well past 400,000 weekly
trade gap of $34B monthly regarded as good
now imports and energy leading to rising inflation (slightly)
did I miss anything??????
we have a recession coming, plain as the perfect nose on my face
it may look like a stall at first
but because of internal financing dynamics, the weakest link being the consumer, and the biggest threat of RE turning over soon...
THIS COULD BECOME ONE MATHAH OF A RECESSION !!!
with stocks down & out, Treasurys and Real Estate are carrying the ball into BubbleEndZone
soon only GOLD will attract investment capital
/ jim |
