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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: longdong_63 who wrote (19162)9/18/2002 5:37:13 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
or a couple more quarters, no more
what then, another move in TEN yields toward 3% flat?
and another round of REFI's?

the curveball here is that lower rates produce even more distortions throughout the entire economy
production moves more toward durables and away from consumables
asset inflation goes more berserk, thus producing more systemic risk
and conditions arise whereby even lower rates ensue
lending becomes even more problematic, grinding to a halt
I see this happening already on a grand scale

where does it end? ... I will tell you
when our rates resemble Japan's
the end of the road is 0% rates
we have them now in automobile purchases
who'd a thunk it a few years ago?

at some point leaders will have to conclude ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
and we will see the economy contract and go into recession
imagine a spring and summer where trees grow without an autumn and winter???
where weak branches are not pruned by nature's winds???
what an ugly landscape that would engineer!!!

laws of economics wont allow our situation to continue much longer (given our foreign capital dependence) any more than nature will allow grotesque plant formations

the most likely scenario is something unforeseen, and certainly not written in leading publications
A VETO BY THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, DELIVERED BY FOREIGNERS
the veto will be a dollar abandonment, refusal to support this utter charade any longer than endured already
we will soon see rising interest rates amidst a weakening economy
it is the currency market VETO, via the USDollar
the next leg down is coming very soon

/ jim
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