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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (16745)9/18/2002 6:14:36 PM
From: Boca_PETE  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
Tim: re:("the utter fallacy of that line of reasoning")

Most definitely. It will likely be MANY years before the QQQ buyers in the $70-$80 area just recover their investment. Assuming QQQ bought at $80 is down 80% at the ultimate bear market bottom. Now say the next cyclical bull market get QQQ up 60% from that bottom. That only gets you to a QQQ price of about $26 (WAY BELOW the $80 purchase price). VERY GRIM INDEED - VERY SAD! Brings home that Wall Street Bromide

"Let your profits run, but cut your losses short"

With his first QQQ trade in May, he seemed to understand that when he advised listeners to have the mental stop loss set at $84. Remember his "Wrong Road Monologue" on the radio, his lecture on "Stop Losses", and his statement "during bear markets, capital preservation is paramount"? He knew and said all the right things, but advised speculation against the bear trend of the market he had previously identified. His failure to set a stop loss on the second QQQ trade was a terrible mistake. He seems to be a smart guy, but something sure blinded him when this latter trade failed followers criticized him. After all, HE DID call the big picture January 2000.

I sure hope he regains his stuff. I'm sure he's feeling the pressure to make a correct call of the current megabear market bottom. But the outcome of his short term trading calls drives home the need for multiple information sources, rather than abdication to a single guru. Hope you didn't lose the farm on the trade.

FWIW,

P
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