I hope you do not think Mr. Prechter has made any good predictions lately (for at least 7 years now).
I actually bought and read his 1995 "Tidal Wave" book.
As far as I know, NOTHING he predicted then has happened.
So, what does he do ?
He writes another book !
In the June 1, 2002 interview (in your link), one question included :
"You’ve got consumer debt valued at over 100% of disposable income, and this is all occurring, Bob, at a time when interest rates are not only high but also in the process of rising. Let’s address that issue in terms of what it portends for the economy and the markets ahead."
First of all ... interest rates were NOT high in June of 2002.
And, they were NOT rising.
(I trade interest rate futures for my own account. I know what rates are doing).
Also -- I recently heard that when one changes from being a renter to a homeowner, one has a huge increase in debt (as recognized by those people who gather consumer debt figures, anyway).
Even though the monthly obligation to pay the rent is (mathematically) very similar to the monthly obligation to pay the mortgage ...
a renter has "lower debt."
I have repeatedly heard that the portion of the American public who are homeowners has risen over time.
Very convenient the way Mr. Prechter ignores this ...
(I stopped reading the interview after the lies about interest rates).
Jon. |
