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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 288.52

-0.3%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (5453)	9/19/2002 11:51:16 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 95420

Remember that book-to-bill is a lagging indicator How is the Book To Bill a lagging indicator? Bookings look forward, and by definition this means it can not be termed a lagging indicator. Because it is a 3 month moving average it may not be the best indicator of future health, but in no way can it be termed a lagging indicator. Do these people even think before writing these notes? •Year-end trade looking less likely. With H202 dampened relative to normal seasonal patterns, we believe SCE bookings are poised for a 3-quarter downturn, with trough in 1Q03. Our visit to Asia confirms our belief that capex will continue to have a downward bias, putting pressure on SCE revenue estimates which still average 24% growth in 2003. With prospects for a recovery pushing out and dampening, we remain underweight SCE. So they recommend waiting to buy until the Recovery is in the headlights and prices are 100-200% higher? Brilliant, sign me up. Listen to these people at your own risk. They are serving somebody, but ask if that somebody is you.

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