Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 288.52

-0.3%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (5453)	9/19/2002 1:07:36 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95420

Thanks for the post. CSFB has been very negative on the semi-equips for some time. When it didn't turn out as bad as they predicted some quick rationalization on their part was in order. The post from yesterday, Message 18007562 shows the start of the 4th up cycle since 1995. In looking at the 3 prior up cycles, there was always a preliminary upsurge in BtB, then a "fallback", and then a final upswing before the final slide into the negative cycle. The present cycle is coming down off the initial surge. CSFB is predicting that the dip will not occur this time, but rather the BtB is going to continue on its present downward course into a negative cycle. The next 1 to 3 months is going to give an answer as to whether they are right or not. Don

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