Z Best Place to Talk Stocks Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (43545)	9/19/2002 4:45:57 PM
From: DanZ	of 53068

I'd guess 185 to 200, and this market stinks bad enough for it to get there. The SOX traded at 300 just a few days ago. Could it fall 33% without a bounce? Anything is possible with emotions as high as they are right now. It's already half way there. LSI would be a steal at 6 if it gets there. TER at 10? Ludicrous. It hasn't traded that low since October 98, the bottom of the last SOX bear market. The company has cumulative earnings of $2.09 per share from the first quarter 1999 through the second quarter 2002. I realize that the market attempts to look forward, but is Teradyne not worth more today than it was in Oct 98? What happened to the $382 million in profit that the company generated since 1999? FLEX at 7? AMD at 6.25? LRCX at 8.95? VSH at 10?? Vishay was actually profitable the last two quarters and produced earnings per share of $4.56 the last four years. These valuations are a joke in my opinion. One mid cap worth looking at is LLTC at 20. They have remained profitable throughout the semiconductor downturn, but the stock isn't all that cheap. Still, I think that the market will continue to pay a premium for companies that have managed to remain profitable despite declining sales, as is the case with Linear Technology. Not all of the semiconductor stocks are trading at such low valuations. One problem for the sector is that some of the big names still aren't that cheap (INTC for example), but they affect the SOX more than the smaller companies that represent better values. The smaller companies also have fewer shares outstanding, and are therefore more volatile than the large caps when they trade big volume. The market is valuing many semiconductor companies as if they will lose money for the next couple of years. I don't see this economic downturn lasting that long, but obviously this is just an opinion and can't be supported with facts. Nobody knows what will happen to the economy over the next two years, but then again, I don't see anything on the horizon that would cause a downturn of that duration. It's sad, but a war would actually be good for many semiconductor companies...and the defense sector.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next