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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 276.98

-2.3%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (5487)	9/19/2002 9:42:55 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) of 95427

Don, terrific work as usual. Those tables clearly show why Cary is secure about the stocks he owns. Furthermore it made me feel much better about my buying LLTC today. One hard lesson I am learning is you might do a valid value comparison to other stocks and arrive at a conclusion that your favorite is far more fairly valued AND YOU CAN STILL LOSE A TON. For example, I looked at Agilent, JDSU and Lucent back in 2000. I was even paid good money as an analyst at a small firm to give my recommendation on these three. I said I actually was selling Lucent, would not buy JDSU and would buy more Agilent. Well, Lucent and Jdsu are down 90% or more, but the Agilent I bought myself and recommended went down from about $60 then to today's value of $14. Yes I greatly outperformed "the peer group" but I still gave a stock that went down. This is happening to Cary's stocks. One reason I have kept my money in my pocket for these is valuation. They are great companies and several of them have remained profitable WITHOUT layoffs, so they would be great places to work, but the market is fickle and might take down all the nasdaq stocks to very low valuations. Of course, the stocks I have bought instead of Caries have also gone down (more lrcx) but I feel they are closer to bear market bottoms then a great company like MXIM or LLTC as they might just have to have price wars with each other to keep growing... but if we get a recovering economy... Anyway... I don't think there is a golden rule except what Cary and I both do is TRY to pick a valuation we are comfortable with and then buy and sell in chunks from there on both the up and down trends. I just wish I had Cary's pile of cash as I am much more invested in the market due to my young age... and higher asset allocation. now if someone can tell my why AMAT went down 2% while LRCX went down 10% today...

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