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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 276.98-2.3%Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (5488)9/20/2002 1:30:56 AM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 95432
 
My strategy is Buy Low, Sell High, but you can't buy at the bottom or sell at the top.

Therefore, the worse time is between buy low and the bottom. That time is now and the bottom is moving down away from my buys.

For some perspective, in OCT '98 my portfolio value was 1/2 the value in the summer of '97 + added cash. I was down 27% from cost.

Today, I am at 48% of the high this spring and I am down 24% from cost.

Between OCT '98 and Mar '00, my portfolio went up six times even though I was at 36% cash by then.

I remember the ASYT low of $5-6 and high of $134, and I conclude that there was no relationship between the two prices except excesses.

The technology business is difficult and so is the market. I expected to be sitting with paper losses. I knew I will not be able to predict how big the paper losses will be or how long I will have them. The only saving grace is the quality of the companies I am holding and their future prospects. I realize I paid more for them than I would have paid for other companies, but I believe I will be ahead in the long run. Time will tell and Don will chart the progress.
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