Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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To: Fred Levine who wrote (3124)	9/20/2002 10:53:21 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Many CEO are not trying to "lock in any ST profits", they are trying to stem losses. It is not "dumb" to slash capital expenditures when there is overcapacity. Most of the "dumb" behavior occurred during the years up to and including 2000. I never considered that there was an "if" or "when" question. It has always been "when". You are correct to look to new products. That is where end user demand will be generated and in many, possibly most, cases there is no over-capacity for the production of these new products. I don't agree with the importance you place on competition. I think that new technology (300mm, etc.) is being deployed prudently during this down period. Foundries and consortiums and INTC, which represent most players, have been developing new advanced production lines and they are more careful to increase production capacity in these advanced lines in line with demand for advanced products. That is why orders go up and down and Taiwanese foundries have slid orders one or two quarters.

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