HERE IS THE LETTER OF THE 8TH..THE LAST ONE WAS FROM THE 1ST...THINGS ARE WORSE TODAY THEN EVEN THIS LETTER..WHILE WE MAY BOUNCE HERE FROM DEEPLY OVERSOLD LEVELS & PLAY IT LONG..I WILL SHORT THAT BOUNCE...GOOD LUCK..AND PLEASE BE ULTRA CAREFUL OUT THERE...WE ARE IN CRASH MODE SOON...
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED SEPT 8TH 2002
"WE DO NOT GAMBLE"
Hello out there my cyberfriends, hope this letter finds you happy and well...I want to wish all my Jewish friends a Happy and Healthy New Year..Let's "all" prosper thru the coming year no matter what your beliefs or religion.
Well I predicted this pullback in the letter of the 25th, like a good trader I exited ALL my longs as updated to you on the 19th & 20th..terrific right?, sure was..I made 2 months of profits in less than 3 weeks all swing and position type trades...I only hope you did well too..
Anyway, I'm telling everyone to WAIT FOR THE PULLBACK, don't have ants in your pants and WAIT FOR THE REVERSAL BACK UP "BEFORE" you go long...Think I would listen to myself??? NAH!!! I see the top there, I see we're heavily overbought and actually thought we would NOT come down as hard because of the underlying strength of the overall rally...I was dead wrong...They sold it off much harder, but not surprisingly...Why? because that's what the market does folks..It always OVERSHOOTS all the time, supports and resistance areas..This is a given...You could bet your whole house on that for sure...BUT----"WE DO NOT GAMBLE" <VBG>...
Ok, well another lesson learned, and let me tell you folks, I keep fighting my demons each and every day...Make no mistake about it..As traders we will always have doubts and second thoughts, just keep them to a minimum and do not let them debilitate you from your important goals, Making a Living trading the markets...Keep moving forward honing your skills, keep watching those lines, drawing supports and resistance areas, and trust those signals, they work...
If you do not understand about drawing lines & setting hard alerts, I suggest you find out quickly everyone...Books are ok, but doing actual trades with others in real time is much better...We are starting our 3rd class this month and hope you'll take advantage of the hard work Bruce & I provide during those 10 hours...It's very intense but you'll come out way ahead of the crowd, we'll move you up by years...Just e-mail Bruce@masterclasstraders.com for the proper information...
OK so what's next for the markets going forward...Well first off the seasonality is against us. There are so many uncertainties out there as well, all the traders are nervous as hell. So skittish markets makes for serious volatility, tradable volatility...I would suggest we all just scalp trade each day, GO TO CASH EVERY NIGHT, without exception, and relax going forward..Why gamble holding overnight? Just think as if anything that could happen probably will happen..This month is triple witching month as well, very volatile the week of the 20th, keep that in mind..and of course we have the potential of Macro Cycle lows coming during Oct...
Below I have all the numbers for the indexes et all so you can set alerts to be aware of whats going on at the proper time..Set alerts and make notes for yourself of what they mean as described below....The basic look of everything here is short all rallies for now...I have some P&F indicators starting to pullback as well...All in all a cautious time frame..Btw The NYSE & OTC are still in X's, yes they've pulled back some but have not reversed down..I am watching the BP OPTI, this index/indicator is all the stocks that are ABLE TO TRADE OPTIONS on both indexes..If this reverses back down then we'll short even more...This indicator is now 1.50% away for that event...and I would deem that as a BIG negative...I am also watching the VIX & VXN too for clues...
OK LET'S CHECK THE INDEX'S WITH THE BULLISH PERCENTS(BP'S)...
DJIA---THIS INDEX HAD THE PERFECT BOUNCE OFF THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL)...AT 8250...HAS RALLIED UP TO 8450..A NORMAL BOUNCE SO FAR...BUT IT MAY BE A LOWER TOP..WE'LL SEE...ON THE 100 POINT CHART IT BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) THIS PAST WEEK, AND WOULD NEED TO PRINT 8600 FOR A PROPER REVERSAL BACK UP...IF WE GET TO 8600 I'D SHORT IT THERE...I CHECKED THE BP OF THE DJIA, IT JUST REVERSED DOWN HERE FROM 56% to 48%..NOT GOOD...
NAZ/COMPX---ON THE DEFAULT CHART IT REVERSED UP 4 BOXES OFF THAT JULY 24TH LOW...ON THE 10 POINT CHART IT RALLIED UP OFF THE 1260 AREA TO 1300 RIGHT HERE..BUT THE CHART LOOKS BEARISH TO ME...IF WE ROLL OVER AND BREAK 1250 LOOKOUT BELOW..SHORT EVERYTHING<G>...NOW A BREAK OF 1340 WOULD BE A BETTER START OF A BETTER RALLY...THE NAZ RS HAS REVERSED BACK DOIWN HERE VS A VS THE SPX..NEGATIVE..
SOX---ONE LOUSY INDEX CHART...IT BROKE 280 AS EXPECTED AND MY DOWNSIDE TARGET IS STILL 220..IT DID A RALLY UP ON THE INTC NEWS OF 5% BUT THE CHARTS OF THE SEMIS WENT 'NOWHERE"..NEGATIVE FOLKS...IF WE GET TO 305/310 I'D SHORT IT THERE...THE BP SEMI HAS REVERSED BACK DOWN HARD AND NOW IS AT 20% FROM 42%...WE'LL SEE IF AND WHEN IT TURNS UP...
NDX---IDENTICAL CHART AS THE NAZ/COMPX---880 BIG BREAK DOWN SHORT THE QQQ'S THERE HARD...970 IS THE BUY SIGNAL, 990 IS OLD HEAVY R(RESISTANCE)...BP NDX IS WAY DOWN..
BTK---THIS INDEX HELD THE BSL LINE AT 330...THE DOUBLE BOTTOM TOO..SO HERE WE HAVE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT THE BSL, AND IN REVERSE I ALWAYS TALK ABOUT THE DOUBLE TOP AT THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE(BRL)..YOU SS THAT MOVE, AND BUY THE BTK MOVE FOR A TRADE...WE USUALLY BOUNCE OFF THAT SET UP...WE ARE A TICK AWAY FROM THE RS OF THIS SECTOR VERSE THE SPX TO REVERSE DOWN!!! THE SECTOR BP HAS REVERSED DOWN AS WELL..DO YOU HAVE THIS PICTURE??? THIS INDEX AND ALL THE STOCKS IN IT ARE SCALP TRADES ONLY..
NOW IF THE SEMIS ARE DEAD, AND THE BIO'S GETTING READY TO DIE, HOW THE HELL CAN THE NAZ MOVE UP??? FOR THAT MATTER HOW CAN THE OVERALL MARKETS MOVE UP...NOT LIKELY FOLKS..
SPX---910 THE REGULAR 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP..925/30 HEAVY R THERE...870 KEEPS IT MOVING DOWN..ANY BREAK OF 965 IS VERY NEGATIVE FOR THIS INDEX..AND MUCHO NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKETS..PLEASE SET ALL ALERTS IN EVERY SINGLE INDEX...THEY MAY TRIGGER ALMOST SIMULTANEOUSLY..
OEX---BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 440...455 3 BOX UP, 435 A NICE SHORT SALE TRIGGER THERE..SST..
VIX---WHAT A CHART, 3 CONSECUTIVE HIGHS AND TOUCHED THE BRL LINE AT 44..NOW HEADSUP HERE..IT THEN REVERSED BACK DOWN 4 BOXES TO 40, THEN MOVES RIGHT BACK UP TO 44 "THE DOUBLE TOP" AT THE BRL LINE??? HELLO!!!! WELL IT FELL RIGHT BACK TO 40.....39 A DB BREAK AND GOOD FOR THE MARKETS SHORT TERM..45 A TRIPLE TOP BREAKOUT AND VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKETS GOING FORWARD...YOU GOT THAT???
VXN---I SAID THAT THE VXN WAS ON A HIGH POLE...ALL HIGH POLES REVERSE DOWN..ALL...I FULLY EXPECTED IT TO REVERSE, SO AFTER IT BROKE OUT AT 50 RAN TO 61, WHICH BTW WAS THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...IT REVERSED BACK DOWN 4 BOXES TO 57...NOW LISTEN PLEASE...AT THIS MOMENT 60 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK "UP" AND YOUR MOVE TO SHORT EVERYTHING...62 IS THE MAJOR BREAKOUT AREA THAT KEEPS YOU SHORT IN YOUR TRADES..IF IT CONTINUES DOWN SAY AT 55 THEN WE COULD GET A NICE POP FIRST.....
SO THERE YOU HAVE IT...SET THOSE ALERTS...AND THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU'RE SEEING...AND TRADE IT ACCORDINGLY...REMEMBER THIS...TRADE WHAT'S IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE...WHAT'S REAL...FORGET THE NOISE..
OK LET'S CHECK THE STOCKS WE "MUST" TRADE, BECAUSE WE LOVE THEM SO MUCH<VBG>...
CHIR---HERE'S A PERFECT SHORT...TALK ABOUT A HIGH POLE??? THIS STOCK I OWNED AT 33.50, YEAH THAT'S RIGHT? BREAKS OUT AT 32 RUNS UP 10 POINTS TO 42 AND I MEAN STRAIGHT UP NO PULLBACK...WAS IT DUE?..OH YEAH IT WAS..IT'S NOW DOWN 6 FULL POINTS....DAMN!...37.70 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)...39 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP(3BXRVUP)...35.50 THE SST(SELL SHORT TRIGGER)...USUALLY WHEN A STOCK REVERSES BACK, YOIU CAN SHORT IT THERE...
AMGN---RECENTLY DOUBLE TOPPED AT 48...EXCELLENT TRADER LONG OR SHORT...45.75 THE BTL...43.75 SST...COULD SEE 39 SOON THE BSL LINE..
APOL---VERY SOLID CHART AND STOCK...42.40 THE BTL...44 THE NICE DT BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...40.80 THE SST..40 IS THE 3BXDN, 38 THE BREAK..
CCMP---LOOKS LIKE A "POTENTIAL" CUP WITH HANDLE ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC)...NICE P&F CHART TOO...IT BROKE THE BRL LINE NICELY AT 44 AND RAN TO 50, THEN CAME ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN TO 39, BUT SINCE HAS REVERSED BACK UP 4 SOLID BOXES..THERE'S SOME R(RESISTANCE) HERE AT 43...44.60 THE BTL AND KEEPS IT MOVING UP...42.60 THE SST...
CEPH---THIS STOCK HAD A CLASSIC TRIPLE TOP FAILURE BREAKOUT..AND DOUBLE TOPPED ON THE DCC AND FAILED THERE TOO..LOOKS WEAK TO ME ON BOTH CHARTS...42.80 THE BTL...44 THE 3BXRVUP...40.75 THE VERY GOOD SST THERE..
EBAY---LOOKS WEAKER TO ME NOW..FELL OUT OF A RISING WEDGE AND IS NOW UNDERNEATH ALL TIME FRAMES ON THE DCC..GAVE A DB SELL SIGNAL TOO ON P&F AT 54...I WOULD SS ALL RALLIES HERE...57.50 THE BTL..55.20 THE SST...
INVN---WHAT A STOCK AND WHAT A CHART..I ONLY HOPE YOU "ALL" OWNED THIS ONE, AND STILL OWN IT...IT'S SHORT TERM OVERBOUGHT..SO HEADSUP..MAKE SURE YOU HAVE STOPS IN PLACE TO CAPTURE YOUR NICE PROFITS..IF WE GET PAST 9/11 THEN THIS STOCK WILL SELLOFF HARD..COMPRENDE"?...BUY THE RUMOR, "SELL" THE NEWS!!!..32 THE SST...31 THE 3BXRVDN KEEPS YOU IN THE SS...33.50 THE BTL...
KLAC---DOUBLE TOPPED AT 41 UNDERNEATH THE BRL LINE AND FELL LIKE A STONE..IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT..ANY STOCK THAT DOUBLE TOPS AND REVERSES DOWN IS A SOLID SHORT...IT BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM TOO BOOT AT 34 AND TOUCHED 30...SHORT ALL RALLIES IN THIS STOCK FOR NOW...33 THE BTL AND 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP..34 WOULD BE MY AREA TO HIT THERE..MAYBE 35 IF WE'RE RALLYING UP HARD...31 THE SST..
MSFT---I LIKE MSFT HERE..LIKE I SAID 46 IS SOLID S AT THE BSL LINE..IT RALLIED SOME ON FRIDAY OFF THAT PRINT THE DAY BEFORE...I THINK 49/50 IS OVERHEAD(O/H) R TO SHORT IT THERE...48.75 THE BTL...46.75 THE SST..ANY BREAK OF 45 STAY SHORT...
QCOM---HOLDING WELL THRU THIS WHOLE MESS SO FAR...FRIDAY LOOKED OK...29.50 THE BTL...30/31 HARD R THERE..32 CLEARS THIS STOCK OUT...27 THE SST...
QLGC---AFTER GREAT EARNINGS LAST Q THEY KILLED THIS STOCK??? CHART LOOKS TERRIBLE..DOJI ON FRIDAY TOO BOOT..BUT LET'S WATCH IT HERE...35 THE BTL AND 3BXRVUP SO THAT'S COOL...33 THE SST...
IBM---GOSH I MADE SUPER MONEY ON THIS ONE...THEN LOST SOME TOO<G>..STOPS DO WORK THO FOLKS...STILL RETAINED 50% OF MY PROFITS...THE STOCK HIT 83 FROM MY BUY IN AT 72.50...BUT IT'S COME ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN HERE...THE BSL LINE IS AT 70...74.25 THE BTL...75 THE 3BXRVUP...STAY LONG WITH STOPS...72.00 THE SST..
AMZN---THIS CHART BELIEVE IT OR NOT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LOT BETTER??? HMMM WONDER WHAT THAT MEANS<HAHAHAHAHAH>....BROKE THRU THAT BRL LINE AND IS SITTING OK...STOCKS IN A PERFECT TRIANGLE ON THE DCC...UP NEAR THE TOP AT R...16 THE BTL...CLEARS IT...14.40 THE SST...
NXTL---THIS STOCK CHART IS REALLY SHAPING UP..THERE'S HEAVY VOLUME THAT'S BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVE UP...YOU COULD HAVE BOUGHT ALL PULLBACKS TO THE RISING 20 EMA DAILY...8.50 THE BTL..LOOKING FOR 10..7.50 THE SST..
INTU---CAME UP ON MY RADAR SCREEN...FROM THE JULY LOWS THRU THIS DATE THE DCC HAS REALLY SHAPED UP NICELY..ABOVE ALL TIME FRAMES AND LOOKS TO BE A CUP WITH HANDLE HERE...47.65 THE BTL...48 THE NEW BUY SIGNAL ON P&F YOU STAY LONG WITH STOPS...45.30 THE SST..43 KEEPS YOU SS..
EXPE---VOLATILE AS ALWAYS..WANNA TRADE IT<g>?...THE P&F CHART LOOKS TERRIFIC ..IT'S MADE 2 CONSECUTIVE HIGHER LOWS...51.50 THE BTL...USE A STOP HERE FOLKS...51 THE 3 BXRVUP MAYBE HOLD IT BREAKEVEN AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS...49.65 THE SST...
BBH---GAVE A BEARISH CATAPULT SIGNAL LAST WEEK..HIT THE BSL LINE AND BOUNCED UP..I WOULD SAY THIS IS A SS TRADE ON THIS BOUNCE...RE-READ WHAT I SAID ABOUT THE BIO TECH SECTOR..81.70 THE BTL...82 IS SOME R THERE...THE 200 EMA ON THE 15 MIN CHART...79 THE SST..TAKE IT, IF IT BREAKS 77 IT'S GOING DOWN HARD...
SMH---IN REAL TROUBLE HERE AT 23...22 BREAKS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM...22.95 THE SST...YOU KNOW THE DRILL...23.85 THE BTL...26 THE 3 BOX RVUP...I DOUBT IT GETS THERE...THIS INDEX IS IN A REVERSE PENNANT FORMATION ON THE DCC..MEANING NEGATIVE...
QQQ...TERRIBLE CHART...BUT WE CAN TRADE IT ANYWAY EITHER WAY<G>...23.30 THE VERY GOOD BTL...22.50 THE SST...WITH ANY BREAK OF 21 LOOK OUT BELOW...
DIA---DOW DIAMONDS...HELL WE'LL TRADE ANYTHING RIGHT??<vbg>...THIS MOVES WITH THE DOW INDEX...NYSE FOLKS...85.10 THE BTL...86 3 BOX UP..I'D THINK ABOUT A SHORT THERE..BUT WILL WATCH..83.80 THE SST...81 LOOKS GOOD...DOES NOT MOVE TOO FAST BUT TRADABLE FOR SURE...AND SAFE...
OK THATS ABOUT IT FOR NOW...PLEASE USE HARD STOPS..GO TO CASH EACH NIGHT WITHOUT FAIL AND WATCH YOUR TRADING CAPITAL..IT;S VERY VERY WHIPPY OUT THERE EACH DAY..I KNOW I'M SCALPING FOR NOW AGAIN...
HAVE A GREAT WEEK...GOD BLESS AMERICA AND ALL THOSE PEOPLE THAT PERISHED IN THAT HORRIFIC EVENT AND THEY'RE FAMILES...
WARMEST REGARDS
JERRY |
