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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

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To: Gottfried who wrote (5553)	9/22/2002 5:51:07 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) of 95474

Gottfried - did you see this? Semiconductor Capital Equipment SEMI Equipment August Book To Bill Beginning the Retracement of Bookings September 18, 2002 The US Semiconductor Equipment Book to Bill (B:B) ratio for August was reported at 1.14. The ratio declined for the second month since the ratio bottomed in April 2001. It is the sixth consecutive month the ratio has been above 1:1. The August front-end ratio decreased to 1.23 from July’s 1.26 and the test/assembly ratio decreased to 0.77 from 1.04. Front-end ratio has now declined signaling a stall in bookings as shipments increase. The sequential decline in the three-month average for bookings was 2.3% compared to 2.9% increase in the previous month. The three-month average for shipments were flat sequentially. Test/assembly ratio declined due to a softer month in orders. Bookings were down 20.8% sequentially to $142.1 million versus a 8.8% decrease in July. We think test bookings will remain below the peak achieved in May, $220 million, for the balance of the year. We expect that the total ratio to be 1.0 in the next three months. The ratio could bottom in the 0.9 range by the first of next year and then begin re-accelerating. We think the ratio is a lagging indicator and that a better gauge for the magnitude of the recovery will be end market demand. Mark F. FitzGerald Greg E. Blomberg Equity Research United States Message 18018836

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