Zeev's Turnips - No Politics Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: Steve Lee who started this subject	9/24/2002 3:32:28 AM
From: Psycho-Social	of 99280

Getting Ready for the Next Run The basic reason for the current Market weakness: Money managers getting ready for another "Run" on Stock Funds and other Managed Accounts when investors see their Q3 Statements. If investors were shocked by their Q2 Statements and withdrew over $50 billion in July, most within a 2wk period, how will they react to the Q3 reports showing much greater damage YTD? Another run (the 4th of this Bear Market) is likely. What'll be different this time is that money managers will raise much cash in advance to avoid the forced selling that occurred in July. They've been raising this cash already in recent weeks. After a probable short term rally just before month end, because of a concerted effort by the large fund families and brokerage firms to make things look a little less bad at Quarter's end, the final week or so of cash raising will occur in early October. After that, when and what level the Market bottoms will depend on whether their advance estimates of redemptions were accurate, too large, or too small. Conclusion, we'll probably get another V shaped bottom somewhere in early to mid-October.

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