Tom Friedman has written a column I totally disagree with tonight. In it, he basically buys the current Palestinian line "gee, reform was just happening and now Sharon's crushed it by making people rally around Arafat again." To this I say: reform didn't just happen by chance. It was a product of Sharon's actions in April and Bush's in June which proved Arafat's policy was a disaster, and weakened him sufficiently to permit dissent. But even so, gunmen tried to assasinate the former PA cabinet member who opposed Arafat tonight. jpost.com While Arafat and his thugs like Tirawi are still there, the pressure must be kept up. If Arafat goes, then you will really see reform.
Also, I suspect that what is driving the timing of this incursion is a desire to smash the terrorists who've been getting weapons from Iraq, before they get a chance to launch a coordinated attack on Israel when the US attacks Iraq. That's how I read this action together with the debka report. Otherwise, the timing is surprising as I had thought that Sharon would be waiting for US action to move, so as not to trip up the US effort in any way. Implying that Sharon just thought that now would be a good time to crush Palestinian nationalism, as Friedman does, is a complete misreading of his policies so far; his behavior has been anything but impetuous, he is using calculated aggression to wage war. I don't think that Friedman quite gets that it is a war.
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Dead End
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
I happened to be in Israel on Sept. 11, 2001, and on Sept. 12 went to the Israeli Defense Ministry to talk to security experts there about what Israel had learned from dealing with Palestinian suicide bombers that might help America. The main lesson, they said, was this: In the end, the only people who can effectively stop suicide bombers are those in the community they come from. Only if their political and spiritual leaders delegitimize suicide bombing, only if their security forces and intelligence agencies are mobilized to prevent it, can it really be stopped. Israel, they told me, could never penetrate Palestinian society the way Palestinians could. Therefore, the ultimate task for Israel was to find the right pressures and incentives to get the Palestinians themselves to stop the bombings.
Unfortunately, that message does not seem to have reached Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who, I believe, has never had a plan for how to reach a stable accommodation with the Palestinians, is only interested in making the West Bank safe for Israeli settlers to stay, not to leave, and is going to lead Israel into a dead end — if he sticks to his present course — and will take America along for the ride.
I have enormous sympathy for Israel's plight today. There is no society in the world that has ever been exposed to what Israel has over the past two years — repeated suicide bombings of its civilians in their buses, restaurants and city centers, compounded by anti-Semitic attacks by Europeans, who call for a severing of ties with Israeli universities when Israel retaliates. That is enough to make any civilized society crazy.
But the Sharon response is not working. Months ago Mr. Sharon dismissed Yasir Arafat as "irrelevant," smashed his security services and announced Israel's intention to assume responsibility for its own security in the West Bank. But when Palestinian suicide bombers from Hamas and Islamic Jihad then perpetrate more suicide bombings, Mr. Sharon attacks Mr. Arafat's headquarters as if he sent the bombers himself.
If Mr. Sharon believes that Mr. Arafat sent these bombers, then he should evict him. If he thinks Mr. Arafat is irrelevant, then he should ignore him. But what makes no sense is to treat Mr. Arafat as if he's totally irrelevant and totally responsible. Because all that does is get Palestinians to rally around the feckless Mr. Arafat and abort any possibility of Palestinians producing a new leadership that would be relevant to negotiations and to Israeli security.
That's not a pipe dream. Thanks to President Bush's blunt call for Palestinians to dump Mr. Arafat — and thanks to Mr. Sharon's crackdown on Palestinians to prove that the foolish intifada they launched two years ago (in the wake of President Clinton's peace overture) will not pay — Israel and the U.S. had begun to sow the first seeds of internal Palestinian reform that were needed for them to rein in the suicide bombers.
For the past months a few Palestinian leaders and commentators have been speaking about what a mistake it was for Mr. Arafat to have turned down the Clinton plan for a Palestinian state; Palestinian legislators have voted no confidence in Mr. Arafat's cabinet and pushed forward more responsible alternatives; and secular Palestinians have begun openly questioning suicide bombing. All of these trends are bad news for Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Iraq and Iran. So they have been pushing out even more suicide bombers to trigger a Sharon reaction that would rally Palestinians around Mr. Arafat's failed leadership and abort the emergence of any new consensus. Mr. Arafat is celebrating.
Mr. Sharon has a tough job. He has to pursue a peace settlement with the Palestinians, as if there were no terrorism, and to hunt the terrorists, as if no peace settlement were possible. That requires subtle distinctions. But Mr. Sharon's policy seems to be to ignore all distinctions — between Hamas and Arafat and between Hamas and the secular Palestinian mainstream, who would like to see change.
One has to wonder whether Mr. Sharon really isn't out to undermine the whole Palestinian national movement in hopes that one day some quisling Palestinian Authority simply surrenders to the Israeli occupation. He sure doesn't seem interested in nurturing a more responsible Palestinian Authority to cede land to.
If that is where Mr. Sharon is going, it will come to tears, and the Bush team, if it goes along for the ride, will be very sorry. Always remember, the leading Hebrew biography of Mr. Sharon is entitled "He Doesn't Stop at Red Lights."
nytimes.com |
