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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks

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To: Goldberry who wrote (4374)9/26/2002 5:06:22 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn  Read Replies (1) of 11633
 
if you or others played the dividend game on Koch Pipelines the return was sweet. In my case I bought KPC.un at an average price of $6.56 and settled the trades on Sept 11 and 12th

------- Interesting that the average price got at is the exact low for the days. What would have been more believeable is if it were not the case. What are the odds that during the trading day with your order (buy) your going to hit the exact lows of the day. Trading during the days was between 6.68 and 6.56. Meaning that not all players would have got at those lows pure and simple some had to pay higher maybe getting an average buy price of 6.68. Now the trading for today has been between 6.74 and 6.61. Meaning that not everyone had gotten at or near the highs some had to have sold at 6.61. What do these numbers then say is also a possible outcome for the strategy. Sell at 6.61 buy at 6.68. Means a loss of 0.07. Getting the dividend of 0.17. Means that his net would be 0.10. Subtract the trading costs of a few cents 0.02 (for example) means getting 0.08 for about 3 weeks of effort. Compare this to just collecting from a trust (your holding accumulating) its income, that pays ,for a month 0.15. Which person is ahead for the amount of time and effort they have put into getting what they get. YOU DECIDE ---------------

sold today x dividend at $6.70. Thats dividend of .17 and cap gain of .14. That's a return of 4.72% in less than 3 weeks with virtually no risk.

-------- The risk is that your the buyer who had to pay the highest price on the days you bought. And also that your the seller that had to sell at the lowest price on the day that you sold. Quite simply then in that case ones return is not 4.72% but is a lot lower. And lower than what one could have got just from doing nothing and collecting the monthly income from another trust. Making the whole effort a complete waste of time and effort as well as resources.------------
-------- Another risk is that something could have come along to sideswipe things like we have seen as of late with Sep 11th, Enron , Worldcom, which saw prices tumble in day(s) 10% or 20% during that 3 week period. What does something like that do. When your trying to capture the dividend then the price collapses because you get side swiped by events. The last quarterly try of this in the june / july period saw the worldcom event hit at this time. Someone trying this would have seen the unit price collapse and perhaps then they get scared into selling out before it (the dividend capture) was completed. Thinking things were going to get a lot worse. They took a real loss then. These things can and do happen as we have all seen and they can be disasterous for any trading. ----------
------- JUST GIVING THE OTHERSIDE OF THAT TOO ROSY PICTURE GRAHAM DESCRIBES ----------------
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