forecasting USGovt budget surplus/deficit harder than weather
and getting it right with weather beyond 3 days is impossible
why do these clowns even bother?
a budget forecast is as meaningful or meaningless as its economic assumptions and forecasts
I have done dozens for Staples
just one error and the whole effort becomes a bad joke
that is where the laughter portions are warranted, deserved
full of political horseshit
"I will trade you a Senate vote for an assumption asterisk"
get real
Sinclair has been proved prescient so far since midsummer
if he is correct on the rising rates, that will shock the economy and the stock market and the bond market
usually in our USA, historically either stocks or bonds rise
one rises while the other falls
the old graybeards are usually the best at this game, as they refuse to attempt to squeeze out that last drop
they shifted from stocks to bonds in late 1999
they shifted from bonds to stocks in 1995
this has been the way for a long time
during expansions, stocks rise, bonds fall slowly
during contractions, stocks fall badly, bonds rise nicely
in the 1990's we saw an exceptional period
both stocks and bonds rose
I think I know why
gold leased sales subsidized TBond purchases, creating an environment of falling interest rates and falling import prices -- the Perfect World
bonds rose, dollar rose, in came foreign capital
the fraud game was on full bore
US consumption binge was seen as good, Foreign Export economic development was seen as good
now just as the 1990's were an exception on the positive side, the 2000's are soon to be an exception on the negative side
BOTH STOCKS AND BONDS WILL BE FALLING SOON
this is the Perfect Storm associated withe Vicious Cycle
STEAL A PERFECT WORLD, AND YOU EARN A PERFECT STORM
we already saw the New Economy Greatest Bull on Earth during the Virtuous Cycle (the fantasy fraud)
NOW TIME FOR THE NIGHTMARE ON MAIN STREET AND WALL STREET
/ jim |
