Willing to believe today was key for the miners, but...
Two more days till the end of the quarter...
Gold below $320 spells HUI below 120 with best short-term support at 116 - a number below the 100 ema and thus one from which there better be a pretty good spring. Unless the flattening out of the Slow Stos and turning up of the Ultimate Oss with the firming closes really means something and is assisted by a falling dollar (below 107.40), weaker stocks and hence higher gold, going under and certainly staying under the key 50 & 100 day moving averages would be anticipated and be very troubling. We'll know pretty well come Tuesday of next week, at least, if these factors will be supportive to shares.
I suspicion Gold stocks will be a little firmer early Friday and then fall..... that's just a suspicion and negativity creeping into my thinking given the significant technical deterioration seen, plus a failed non confirmation of the metal by the miners, and an awareness of Gold's weak seasonal pattern in October.
Dollar hourly
charts-d.quote.com:443/1018861645530?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=INDEX:DX00Y&Interval=60&Permission=342490&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=0&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10
HUI daily
stockcharts.com[h,a]dbcayiay[d20011105,20020926][pc50!c100!f][vc60][iut!Ud20!Uh14,3!Ug!Lb14!Lh14,3!Ll14!Ld20!Lya7,14,28]&pref=G
Plan on holding what I have while assuming 120-116 will be retested, certainly not buying strength, and probably taking as further lightening up sell signals any closes below today's lows. It may, of course, be that we just end up being in the mud for a while...JPM's inability to rally is a plus for contrary investment vehicles and NASDAQ's tail off Thursday supports the continued bearish view on the general equity list in my opinion. (Using October 16-Nov 6 as interim SM bottoming period.) As an indication of liquidation intent note how EMC fell 20% from its high to make new lows at one point today on no news I found. Nortel to reverse split; I can imagine shorts warming up their hands for that event.
jims101 |
