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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 215.19+3.0%Jan 13 3:59 PM EST

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To: Pullin-GS who wrote (7107)7/21/1997 12:44:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit   of 61433
 
Paul, let me give you a concrete example. Let's compare a buy and hold strategy that yields 15% per annum after expenses (2 brokerage fees) to a trading strategy that also yields 15% after brokerage fees (multiple trades each year) so that I can demonstrate the tax effect. Let's further assume that each year the trading strategy yielded 15% after expenses and the trading portfolio was completely liquidated at the end of the each year. After a five year period, the effective tax rate reduces the yield per annum on the trading strategy to 10.8% compared to the yield on the buy and hold strategy to 11.6%. This gap increases the longer the security is held and the greater the gain. The gap is further increased at such time that a reduction in long term capital gains taxes is enacted. The reason behind the gap is simple -- the government is extending you a risk-free loan ( if you lose the money you don't need to repay it!) at 0 interest.

Transaction costs can also eat up a lot of the trading gains, but there is no way to quantitate this since it will depend on the size of the portfolio and the number of trades each year.

I hope this analysis helps. There is also a considerable body of evidence from academe that shows that T/A has no predictive value.

Regards, and good luck

Paul
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