isopatch, WINTER FORECAST PREVIEW
Moved my vacation back a few days for other reasons, so have time for a quick forecast preview. Hope this will be helpful, though expect market/economic forces to drive the OSX/XNG until the weather puts a dent in inventories.
As I believe I mentioned to you via PM some while ago, one thing I was waiting for was drought conditions in east to be moderated by a hurricane or remnants thereof. This is coming to pass and could come to pass again in the next few weeks.
Also was waiting for some signature temperature readings in certain areas which have now come in.
SO, data is now sufficient for me to briefly forecast with some confidence my outlook for the mid atlantic and likely the northeastern US this winter.
With the exception of a few weeks in either October or November, I am forecasting a colder than normal winter. Snowfall amounts I do not have a high confidence level yet, but expect normal amounts at least. Also expect a large storm Dec 31, but not sure if ice or snow.
Preliminary forecast suggests temps this winter will rank in coldest third of the winters over the last 120 years.
Last year unexpected (by me anyway) windflow patterns over the pacific plus a surge in solar activity in the fall reduced accuracy of my forecast. These two can effect the forecast this year also and I won't have the data for a month or two to know for certain, but this would effect the amount of colder than normal temps only.
From what I see now, a replay of last winters warmth is NOT in the cards.
Just My Humble Winter Forecasting Opinion, NOT investment advice, normal caveats apply, etc etc.
Best Regards,
Roebear |
