Hey, John, there is a very interesting political situation in Missouri that I was not aware of. It really "tightens the Knickers" on Daschle.
September 23, 2002, 10:15 a.m.
Focus on Talent
Missouri contest could tip the Senate to the GOP, at least temporarily.
After months of obstructing President Bush's agenda, Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D., S.D.) is finally kicking things into high gear. What has finally spurred the South Dakotan into action? James Talent.
Talent's bid for the Senate from Missouri, which in many respects is similar to tight contests nationwide, has one very important distinction: His victory alone could hand the GOP a temporary majority. The race is a special election, to fill the remainder of Mel Carnahan's term, who died before beating John Ashcroft two years ago. The Democratic governor (who defeated Talent that same election) appointed Carnahan's widow, Jean Carnahan, to fill the seat until this November's special election.
Since the Talent-Carnahan race is a special election, Talent would become senator immediately upon winning, instead of in January like other newly elected members. The Talent addition would put the GOP back into the majority (with 50 senators and Vice President Cheney) for any lame-duck session at the end of the year, regardless of which party controls the Senate come January.
Lame-duck speculation has heated up recently because Talent has. Although the race is officially a dead-heat in published numbers, the Republican challenger is up four to seven points in internal tracking polls, and even a prominent Democratic pollster concedes that Talent is trending upward.
Buzz inside the Beltway. which often amounts to nothing more than gossip, on the "Talent scenario" has become palpable in the past week. And Democrats are bracing for the worst.
Daschle is threatening to keep senators in town until October 18, two weeks before Election Day, even working weekends. Some Republicans, however, are convinced that Daschle is all talk. "They have more vulnerable incumbents than us, so Daschle's not going to trap them here on the weekends," notes a senior Republican Senate staffer.
In recent weeks, Daschle has moved closer to the Republican position of passing a long-term continuing resolution to put federal funding on autopilot until February or March. Although he has not yet publicly embraced that plan, he may have no other option to avoid a potential GOP-controlled lame-duck session.
The Senate has only passed three of thirteen appropriations bills to fund the government for the fiscal year starting in less than a week, and President Bush has yet to receive even a single one for his signature.
While making public threats about forcing senators into overtime, Daschle has been working furiously behind the scenes for the best way to avoid a post-election session.
One Senate Republican leadership aide crowed, "We just find the whole thing pretty funny; it's as if they're planning for a Doomsday scenario."
Given the history of appropriations, there's not even a remote possibility that 13 separate bills could make their way to the president's desk before the election. That means the only avenue for avoiding a lame-duck gathering is a long-term continuing resolution, something Republicans have wanted all along, because it ups the odds that spending will be kept in check.
Democrats publicly insist that they're not worried about a lame-duck session where they're in the minority, because they'd still control the committees due to parliamentary maneuvering. However, a senior Republican senator notes, "Daschle knows that we'll just Rule 14 everything to the floor."
"Rule 14" is a parliamentary procedure by which a majority vote can remove bills bottled up in committee, allowing the full body to vote on the legislation on the Senate floor.
A titular GOP majority could also bypass the Democrat-controlled committees for Bush's nominees being held hostage with a move called a discharge petition.
But, as is the nature of the Senate, Democrats could conceivably filibuster until January. Such a Democratic blockade, however, would not be politically painless.
Since filibusters require members to effectively vote on each bill or nominee, Democrats who are vulnerable come 2004 could be placed in the unenviable position of having to oppose the new Department of Homeland Security or Hispanic judicial appointee Miguel Estrada.
Of course, all of this could be wishful GOP thinking if, say, Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R., R.I.)-an unpredictable moderate who has praised Sen. James Jeffords's party-switching move-changes parties himself or simply refuses to be a team player. Daschle is not counting on Chafee's charity, however.
With neither side particularly eager to chance a lame-duck session, the new battleground likely will be how to structure a long-term continuing resolution (CR). Since CRs essentially take the previous year's spending levels and add on a few percent for inflation, the big debate will be whether or not to count the post-9/11 $40 billion spending spree as the one-time expense that it was, or something that needs to be repeated next year.
Considering the less-than-sterling record Republicans have in battling government largesse in recent years, it may take more than just a little Talent for the GOP to win this spending fight.
nationalreview.com |
