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Technology Stocks : Energy Conversion Devices

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To: jacq who wrote (6906)	9/27/2002 1:35:27 AM
From: alfranco	Read Replies (1) of 8393

Jacq, can you explain... "The number that sticks in my mind is $1 per watt per existing machine and $2. per watt installed. I believe that this is a target that the PV plant has set for itself." I'm not sure I understand your statement. The only time I have heard ECD/Unisolar talk about a $1/W manufacturing cost is at a production scale of 100MW which is over triple this machine's stated capability. Stan/ECD have been saying this going back to the early '90s and possibly earlier. At $1/W as a PV cost figure for the buyer (meaning of course that the manuf. needs to have even lower cost of manuf. to profit) then SMUD does figure that installed cost, including wiring/inverter/balance of systems and installation labor, would run $3/W at which point solar would match their existing generating costs. According to UPEX, NREL & others, for a large portion of the US, $3/W (technically AC watt costs post wiring/inverter current losses) installed solar cost is the magic number which is why I look forward to Bekaert/Unisolar reaching 100MW scale. As for the 'old plant producing at $6-9. per watt', well the 5MW output was priced for sale in 20kW lots at under $4/W, at least for the peel-n-stick. Hopefully, the production costs you mention were for a much-much earlier generation machine when PVs had a higher prevailing market price... otherwise Stan would have been marching us towards a precipice. Good night, Al

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