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Biotech / Medical : Vivus, Why the Slide?
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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (2794)7/21/1997 1:29:00 PM
From: Rubble   of 3991
 
TA- I've joined your camp to some extent. I haven't done anything as drastic as selling ALL my VVUS, but I've cut back on my holdings to about 1/3 of what they were a couple weeks ago. I still believe there will be a huge short squeeze pretty soon, I just doubt it will happen within the next month. I might jump back in in full force if I like the July short interest figures. I expect VVUS to start to rise sharply in late August as earnings anticipation euphoria starts setting in. I think it's likely that we'll see 25 again before we see 35, so I want some cash reserves in case I have the chance to increase my position on weakness. If I see a 3+% increase in July short interest, I'll probably start buying regardless of the price.

I don't think IBM will beat the estimates. It had to buy back an awful lot of shares to do it last quarter, and I doubt they could possibly buy back enough to beat the greater expectations Wall St has for Big Blue this quarter. The weaker dollar will be a great help, but with IBM's run-up over the past 3 months, IMO they'll need to give a pretty big positive surprise to justify its current price. A drop in IBM could drag down the whole market tomorrow. I know I should be buying IBM puts, but I have a bitter taste in my mouth from dealing with IBM. Maybe I'll buy a straddle.

Best of luck with your cash, TA.
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