Carl wrote:
The last time we drained a swamp was in WW2. We did it by killing or imprisoning every German or Japanese national, military or civilian, we could get our hands on for most of 5 years. The result was a pretty much completely drained swamp. I agree that if we were to do the same thing to the Middle East it would drain the swamp.
But if we instead follow Israel's weak and ineffective military policy we'll end up with the same result that the Israelis have -- war forever.
Carl, these are not the 40's - killing massess of people is not going to "drain the swamp".
First, what causes the swamp? There are many, many reasons, and we can go down the list starting with corrupt, despotic and ineffective Arab goverments and an Arab civilization that has failed to adapt. But forget that - let us see what makes it a "swamp" for the U.S.
Unquestioningly, while there are a number of reasons, the biggest one is our support of Israel.
Israel happens to be an colonial apartheid regime occupying a nation. Apartheid - a significant number of Israeli citizens are second class based on race (Arabs without all rights given Jewish citizens). To say that Israeli Arabs live better and have more rights than Arabs in Arab countries is not relevant - just as it was not relevant that blacks in South Africa lived better and had more rights than in black African countries. Israel is an apartheid regime based on racial and religious discrimination - just the facts. This does not endear Israelis to the Arabs. But it gets worse.
Israel is trying to annex territory from another nation. Israel was created as a result of a horrendous crime against the Jewish people - one of the very worst in history (Holocaust). But Israel was created by ripping a large patch of land away from the natives who lived there for generations. It doesn't matter that some of the Israeli ancestors lived there before, etc. - imagine that a foreign power suddenly ripped out a few states from the U.S. and created a new country for the Native Americans. Of course that will create problems.
This was done through the U.N., so you could say, imperfect as it was, it was an expression of the will of humanity (and how very imperfect, we all understand). Furthermore, I believe that most Arabs would be willing to accept Israel's right to exist. Not all, to be sure, but a majority - we've had polls to that effect in years past, even among Palestinians.
However, the problem is that Israel went beyond what the U.N. gave them. They decided to occupy more land, and leave less and less for the Arabs whom they displaced in the first place. That was bound to cause a reaction. Arabs would be willing to accept Israel's right to exist under the U.N. mandate, as long as Israel in fact did not go beyond that mandate (NB the Saudi Initiative f.ex.). What no Arab can accept is the continuing expansion and land grabs by Israel (settlements etc.).
If you occupy a people... If you take their land... If you continuously deny them the right to self-determination (creation of a country, just as Israel was created)...
You will suffer the fate of all occupying armies and their societies. The Arabs will resist. This is always a nasty situation. An occupied people will do nasty things. They don't have tanks to put up against you, so logically they'll resort to the weapons at their disposal - you can call this terrorism, but they call it their "freedom fighters". After all, many Europeans resisted the Germans with "terrorist" tactics during WWII, our forefathers did so against the English etc.
So labelling the fighters against Israel "terrorists", because they use unconventional warfare is not productive - especially when the labels come from folks who themselves established their state with terrorist methods (Israel). Their leader Arafat may be a "terrorist", but so were many leaders of Israel. Both used terror against civilian populations (Stern Gang etc.)
Far more sensible is to ask what is to be done? The U.S. is siding overwhelmingly and practically unquestioningly with a colonial apartheid regime that is occupying a people - Israel. Naturally, the U.S. becomes a target.
Solution: let Israel know that the U.S. will not support Israel as long as Israel is bent on such suicidal policies. If Israel wants to commit suicide, no reason for the U.S. to follow suit.
The Israeli policy is suicidal. Why? Exactly for the reasons that you spelled out: "draining the swamp".
You cannot have a military solution here. You could go ahead and wipe out every Palestinian from the territories. Not realistic, but let us play a "gedanke" experiment. Let us somehow imagine that Israel (or the U.S.) managed to effect a "final solution" to the Palestinian problem. That would not wipe out terrorism, for there are still Arabs out there. There are Arabs in Israel - but maybe you can kill them all (already there are voices in Israel to expell them, just as Nazi Germany expelled millions of their Jewish citizens to Poland just before WWII). Even if you wiped out all Arabs in Israel, even if you wiped out all the Arabs in all the countries of the ME (Carl!), you'd still have many left in the U.S. and Europe and the rest of the world.
Are you going to go after Arabs who are U.S. citizens for many generations? Note: terrorists have also come from folks who are only "half" Arab, like the Richard Reid character - because they are burning with hatred for the things Israel has done and is doing to the Arabs, and so will their sons in perpetuity - as long as Israel continues to fan the hatred through new generations of Arabs. So, are you going to institute Nuremberg laws and hunt down every 1/8 Arab out there? Not realistic. Hitler didn't succeed. No reason to suppose Sharon would manage. But let us say, you succeed. Would that solve the problem?
No, because Israel is hated by people who are not Arab. Many of those haters are Muslim (btw. Israel discriminates against Muslims in Israel, compared to rights afforded those of Jewish faith). Take a look at millions of Muslims in Pakistan, in Indonesia, in Iran - so many hate Israel. Many are frankly anti-Semites. And they are not Arab. So, are you going to wipe out 2 billion Muslims? Every potential terrorist? Every Muslim on Earth? And believe it - they hate Israel with a passion, and given the means, they'd wipe Israel out.
Do you see the absurdity of proposing a "military" solution?
Here's the reason why a military solution won't work. Unlike the 40's (or ever before in history), sheer numbers of people killed will not let you win the war or drain the swamp (Carl!). We are moving inexorably into new territory, where a tiny number of dedicated fanatical people can cause unacceptable damage to a superpower. What happens if they get ahold of nuclear weapons? They may fail 1000 times - but all they need is to succeed just once to generate nuclear weapons, and it is all over. Even Warren Buffet said it was not a question of "if" but "when" a nuclear weapon explodes on U.S. soil. But forget nuclear weapons. It is only a matter of time, when you will be able to cook up deadly viruses in your basement. Biotech is moving so fast, and minaturization is progressing so fast, that you can truly have a lab in your basement. You cannot stop the spread of knowledge of how to cook up those germs or stop the progress of technology. It is quite certain that genetic engineering will one day allow you to easily combine the deadliness of the AIDS virus with the spreadability of a common cold to create an Armageddon bug. And that could be the work of just ONE hate-filled individual. One who grows up on stories of how Israel wiped out his people (if Israel did manage to affect the final solution we discussed). So, wiping out billions won't help if just a handful can cause your population to disappear. Oh, and yes, many of those dedicated terrorists are quite willing to die themselves. A terrorist can be a professor at a University in the U.S. - anybody, anywhere.
This is just a matter of time. So, Israel (or the U.S.) would be wrong to think that in time, you can "wear down" Arabs or Muslims through military pressure. And even wholesale final solution won't work. Bottom line: there are no military solutions to "drain the swamp" (Carl!).
Only hope is to remove the motivation for the terrorists, freedom fighters and the opponents. A "software" solution, not a "hardware". Drain the swamp of hatred.
Give back, UNCONDITIONALLY Arab lands (67 borders). Abide by all U.N. land resolutions. There is nothing to negotiate. Give them back. Period. Do you negotiate with a robber to give you back the property he robbed? No. It is not his to negotiate. Same here. It is not Israel's land to negotiate over. No discussion - no negotiation - give up the land. Israel did it in Lebanon. They can do it in the territories. And that includes taking out the settlements.
Then, try to build good relations with the Palestinians and Arabs, and Muslims.
Sound like a ridiculous dream? Hardly. You drain the swamp by letting them have something to lose. Don't take it all - let them have half a loaf. A man with nothing to lose is a dangerous man. Give the Palestinians ****ALL**** the land back (67 borders) - so they can feel that they have an honorable peace. No right of return for Palestinians in Israel proper (Arafat hinted that he understood that it is not realistic for Israel to accept the Palestinian right of return to Israel proper lands). Give them what Barak was NOT willing to give. And remember - it is not Israel's to "give", for it is Arab land. Arabs will have to agree to let Israel keep their 67 borders (Saudi Initiative).
Now the Palestinians will have something to lose.
Does that mean all Arabs would then love Israel? Would all the terrorists give up? No. But that's the distinction. The "freedom fighters" would give up. The terrorists would not. There will always be "maximalists", and fanatics (Israel has its own maximalists, presently seemingly in charge), who would only rest if Israel and for good measure the U.S. ceased to exist. But that's like saying - there will always be crime. Of course there will be. But the solution to that is to try to minimize the causes of crime - if the population is starving to death, you'll have a lot of theft of food. Remove starvation - you'll still have some who will steal on principle, but now the problem is manageable. The best chance for settling the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was during Rabin's time. PA security serviceswas starting to cooperate with Shin Bet. Did it stop all terrorism? No. Can police stop all crime? No. But you can vastly reduce the number of criminals, their support, their morale. As Peres has said - you have to drain the swamp, because you can't let the swamp breed millions of mosquitos. Drain the swamp of hatred. Take away the OBVIOUS reasons for hatred, which even decent "non-terrorist" Palestians cannot abide - the occupation of their land, the settlements, the murders of civilians etc., the systematic choking of their economy. You will still be left with the fanatics - but those, as in every society are a minority. At least they will not have the support of their society at large. Now, for the remaining minority you can concentrate the full powers of containment (military, political, intelligence, counter-terrorism). If Arabs and Israelis TOGETHER fight a small minority of fanatics, you have a chance. You have no chance with a swamp breeding billions of mosquitos. You can't swat them all. But drain the swamp, and you are left with small numbers of mosquitos. And as a bonus, now against that you can array not only your forces, but the forces of your former enemies. 100 times fewer terrorist, and twice as many counter-terrorists - good equation. Because now the Palestinians have something to guard, something to lose - so just as before, they'll work with you to contian their terrorists. Btw., sure they may not be 100% effective - but who is? The Israeli's? Rabin was killed by a Jewish Israeli terrorist. If Israel cannot prevent EVERY native terrorist striking against Israel at the highest level, why do they demand hypocritically that Arafat be 100% effective against ALL Palestinian terrorists? Israel has many terrorists - civilian Israelis - who kill Arabs. How come they didn't "wipe" those out? Same for Palestinians - they can't be 100% effective. Is any police force on Earth 100% effective against crime? So why demand that of Arafat?
Bottom line. There will always be terrorists, just as there will always be fanatics, and always evil people, and deranged people. The trick is to make sure there are as few such as possible, and that you get the full cooperation of THE WHOLE WORLD against them.
You cannot get that cooperation, by being a colonial power occupying a people. And you cannot diminish and delegitimize true terrorists, when by your policies you constantly create more, and you constantly give reason for hatred. For injustice on such a scale can never be peacefully accepted. As long as Israel steals land, kills, and occupies a people, there will be conflict, and as long as the U.S. cooperates and enables Israel, the U.S. will be a victim.
Pull out. Give back the land. You will drain the swamp. Slowly, very slowly and with many setbacks, eventually that will lead to a permanent peace, and one day - very distant - to Arab-Israeli friendship. But injustice will not stand. And you will not drain the swamp by killing millions, no matter how many you kill. |
