A few things that do seem obvious, if we are considering the relative costs and benefits of invasion....
Regime change in Iraq will not cripple Al Qaeda or any other terrorist organization. Their ability to attack the US will continue as it was.
Once an attack becomes inevitable, we sacrifice the most powerful protection we have against state support for terrorism: deterrence. Once the US commits itself to an attack, there is nothing whatsoever to prevent Saddam from turning over biological and chemical weapon stocks to terrorists. We have to assume that he will do so.
Regime change may reduce the probability of terrorists coming into possession of a nuclear weapon someday. I say "may" because there is no certainty that Saddam will be able to make a bomb and even less certainty that he would release it to powers he cannot control if he did. On the balance side, an attack makes it extremely likely - I'd say almost certain - that terrorists will come into possession of substantial biological and chemical weapon stocks. Hard to say that this equation protects the US significantly.
If the US does successfully invade Iraq, all the terrorists have to do to negate the impact of the event is stage one more significant attack in the US, which would serve as a declaration to us and, more important, to the Arab world, that while Saddam may be gone, Islamic terrorism is alive and well. The terrorists know this very well, and it is not likely that they would refrain from attacking.
Post-invasion events will expose us to a highly vulnerable situation. If a government that we install collapses, or if we have to go back in to either replace or reinforce it, this will be as much a defeat for the US as the actual battle will be a defeat for Iraq. The forces arrayed against us in the Middle East know that they can't beat us on the battlefield. They also know that if they can successfully destabilize whatever government we install, they can achieve the goal that they cannot achieve by fighting, at far lower cost. Where do you think they will put their efforts?
It may be that nobody has come up with a credible alternative between invasion and inaction. I hope somebody puts some effort into that task soon, since either of those options leaves us in a pretty nasty position. |
