High tech, your response is a bit more than I expected... I'm not questioning your outlook, to be honest I don't know whats going on, your perspective is as good as any afaic.
I was only wondering about Roach. You posted his outlook in Dec 98 (late Dec 98, year end to be exact) and Jan 99. That was way after "the crisis", which was in October.
During the russian debt/LTCM crisis, I recall Roach as bearish, extremely so- "sell everything" kind of thing. This was sept/oct... by late November 98 Amazon was projecting a 300mm$ christmas, so any bullishness past thanksgiving timeframe was mainstream sentiment.
My question is, can Roach deal with intermittent bad news which happens from time to time, without reacting with a "sky is falling" call? Because thats what he is doing right now, saying the sky is falling. If he did this during every down period the mkt has ever faced, then I would call him a permabear.
For example (from Roach's outlook Dec 98): But we are all probably in general agreement that the best that can be said of 1998 is that it is finally over. World financial markets went through their worst crisis in 60 years,
1998- the world financial markets went through their worst crisis in 60 years (according to Roach).... huh??? WWII, bay of pigs, 73/74 oil embargo+inflation, 82 recession with interest rates at 18% and 12% unemployment... these events paled in comparison to 1998? Its this kind of extreme rhetoric I am questioning about Roach.
Lizzie |
