<<My question is, can Roach deal with intermittent bad news which happens from time to time, without reacting with a "sky is falling" call? Because thats what he is doing right now, saying the sky is falling. If he did this during every down period the mkt has ever faced, then I would call him a permabear.
For example (from Roach's outlook Dec 98): But we are all probably in general agreement that the best that can be said of 1998 is that it is finally over. World financial markets went through their worst crisis in 60 years.>>
Lizzie ... I understand what you are saying, and in terms of that particular quote you selected to make your point, I agree with you ... however, because, like all humans, Stephen Roach sometimes overstates himself, it is very simplistic on your part to characterize the entire article, and for that matter, the entire man based on that (or other out of context examples) ... it is important to "see the forest through the trees" ... Stephen Roach does that well, do you? ...
... and did you notice, in his conclusion in that same December, 1998 analysis, he said, All this underscores the potential for an important shift in financial market risk over the next year -- away from the contagion of foreign exchange markets and back toward the perils of an overinflated equity bubble ... labeling someone bull or bear is not helpful, in any case ... but you can label Stephen Roach mostly "correct" most of the time (certainly since November, 2000) ... and that would be accurate ...
My question is, can Roach deal with intermittent bad news which happens from time to time, without reacting with a "sky is falling" call? Because thats what he is doing right now, saying the sky is falling.
... if I can accurately paraphrase what I view SR as gradually saying over many columns (2 to 3 each week for almost 100 weeks) ... and in your terms ... (1) it looks as if the sky is getting darker ... (2) the sky is getting darker ... (3) now it looks like it might rain ... (4) the sky is really getting dark ... (5) it's starting to rain ... (6) ... wow, the clouds are getting very heavy and much lower ... (7) and it is getting very windy, and raining harder ... (8) ... look at that lightening and thunder, pheew ... (9) ... LOOK, that looks like it might be a tornado ...
... and, I agree, he is now saying the sky is falling ... and he is not the only one who has been coming to the same conclusion gradually ...
... after being bearish for going on 3 years, I now think the sky may fall in the next, I don't know, say 6 to 18 months ... could I be wrong ... of course, I could be totally wrong ... however, I always position my investment strategy based on the conclusions I have come to ... that is why I unloaded all my SUNW (about 80% of my capital at that time) in early 2000 ... and that is how I have positioned myself now with lots of long-term S&P puts, US Dollar Index puts, gold mining stocks, lots of cash and 3 story stocks ...
... please, let you and I end this discussion pretty quickly ...you either get what I am saying or you do not ...
Respectfully,
Ken Wilson |
