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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Little Joe who wrote (19603)9/28/2002 7:13:00 AM
From: jimsioi  Read Replies (2) of 36161
 
Little Joe, not to belabor the point, but..

From the COT data chart previously presented see Net Commercial short position spikes and subsequent declines as follows:

Mid '93 50 dollar decline

early 96 150 dollar decline

June '01 25 dollar decline

Oct 01 25 dollar decline

June 02 30 dollar decline.

When were they bullish? (postive net long 80K)
Bottom of 99, early 01 at $255-60, and Nov 01 at the 270 turn

When were their shorts the lowest
At the 2001 turn.

Conversely the ratio of small trader longs to shorts has never been more extremely positive (5.36::1) as they are currently. Whatever ones investment horizon the commitment data at the extremes has been worthy of consideration.

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