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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 117.63+3.0%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: re3 who wrote (90134)9/28/2002 11:10:33 AM
From: goldsheet  Read Replies (1) of 116818
 
Unstable economic/currency situations can be both positive and negative for gold.

In some cases, it will cause concerned investors to buy gold as a safe haven, as we have seen in Japan this year. Putting things in context, if Japan continues at the current 6 month demand rate they will demand about 180mt in 2002 vs. 113.9mt in 2001, up 66.1mt. Meanwhile, if India continues as its current rate 2002 will be 480mt vs. 726.7mt in 2001, down 246.7mt. It's just a math thing, one needs huge gains in small markets to compensate for the drops in Indian market. Argentina is probably a relativley samll gold market, numbers not founf in WGC data table. I would count much more on miners demand to cover hedges than investor demand to keep gold $320 for the rest of 2002.

REF: gold.org

In other cases, once a serious collapse has occurred those who had invested in gold may sell. Following the Asian currency collapse supply from gold scrap went from its usual average 600mt rate to 1098mt in 1998. It;s great ot have some gold when your currency collapses, but when things get really bad you have to sell some of your gold hoard or start melting jewelry to get stuff like food.
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