HERE'S MY NEWSLETTER DATED THE 15TH OF SEPT...NOTHING HAS CHANGED MY MIND AS YET...HECK THE INDEXS COULDN'T EVEN GET UP TO THE DECENDING 20 EMA'S ON ALL CHARTS..AND THEN GOT MURDERED...STAY IN CASH AT NIGHT...SCALP AND DAYTRADE TO ULTRA SUCCESS..WE ARE, EACH AND EVERYDAY..
THERE'S OPEN HOUSE ON MONDAY....STOP BY AND SAY HELLO...I HAD A SENSATIONAL TRADING WEEK IN THE REAL TIME ROOM..POSTED EVERY TRADE, WITH STOPS, AND EXITS WHEN I SOLD...WE ALL DO..IN BOTH VOICE AND TEXT...HEY..LIKE I ALWAYS SAY..."WHAT IS....IS"<VBG>...
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED SEPT 15TH 2002
" ROCKY ROAD AHEAD"
Hello all you traders out there, are we having fun yet?<G>...Hope all is well with you and yours...
Here comes Triple Witch Week, and it should be a doozie for sure..always is. So let's get right to the meat of this letter. Keep your powder dry thru the end of Oct for now or at least till or IF we retest July 24th lows...It looks like it's in the cards..The chart patterns are all saying it, however the Point & Figure Main Coaches are still hanging in there. This is known as a confluence of events..The internals on P&F look ok right now, they can change quickly here if we begin in earnest to selloff obviously...Nothing is threatening to reverse yet, so we stay the course for now, and daytrade and scalp...
WE ARE NOT INVESTING JUST YET..hold your money on the sidelines, clean out your accounts and tell everyone you can to do the same..I do not care HOW MUCH THEY ALREADY LOST. THEY MUST TAKE ACTION HERE....If you sit there like a Deer in the headlights your doomed. Forget about getting your money back from stocks that plummeted down from 100-200-300 to under $10.00 bucks folks..IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN...And until and unless you fully understand this your dead as a doornail...so wake the hell up and wake up now...oh and how many times have i said this?? about 100<G>...
The symmetrical chart patterns of all the main indexes, the DOW-COMPX-SOX-NDX-BTK etc all look like they're going to eventually test the lows...I am not sure about breaking them but a retest is a certainty IF WE BREAK SUPPORTS I HAVE AS TARGETS FOR US...What should you be doing? SHORT THE MARKET FOLKS...SHORT STOCKS...SHORT ALL RALLIES UP INTO OVERHEAD RESISTANCE..Got that? Hey I'm using a 2X4 here, wake up and get this right...Use stops of course but we trade the trend everyone, and the trend is down, especially thru Sept-- Oct seasonality..Amazing to me how this pops up each and every year like clock work? I have no clue why this occurs but it does..
Look I've talked about telling your folks and friends about my "buy the stock" with a dividend and sell the Leap calls of 2004..Have anyone of you talked to them about this strategy??? Are you doing this as we speak for yourselves? There are many Utility stocks, Dogs of the Dow, MO etc that they could take FULL advantage of this type of return instead of 2% in a money market account or a CD at 4-5% percent and tying up their money for 4-5 years at very historically low rates...Think these rates will be this low for ever? Not in this lifetime...Don't bet your house on it...At some point Alan G and the Fed will HAVE to raise rates, when that happens this housing bubble will crash and burn so fast it'll make your head spin...Those that placed their cash into CD's will be stuck with those very low rates...Use your heads this is a very safe way of getting lost real cash back into those IRA's and Stock Portfolio accounts...
You can use this each and every year over and over again and again...it's sweet...So please don't sit there, and please help your family and friends that just have no clue...You can trade this right online by buying the underlying stock and selling the next strike up about 5 points higher the 2004 LEAP Call options...Go to the www.cboe.com and look up the correct symbol..that's important..if anyone needs help with this just e-mail me and we'll discuss it privately...
Let's look at just one of these potential trades again...And realize that these are nothing more than Covered Call trades...I'll use EK(Eastman Kodak) for an example....
currently EK is at 28.36...It moves like a snail which is what you want...it pays a whopping 6.35% dividend..thatsa nice huh<g>?...so you buy 1000 shares of EK for $28,300, you then sell the Jan 2004 Leap Call Strike 30 LEK-AF for $3.60...and collect $3600.00 immediately to your account that minute...you hold this stock thru 1 year to collect the full quarterly dividends at $1797.00...calculated at 6.35% of $28,300=$1797.00 so far so good huh..you now have $5397.00 bucks in your pocket for a stand still return NOW GET THIS WILL YA?..19% on your invested $28,300..KNOCK KNOCK HELLO??? ANYONE HOME...
OK THAT SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE RIGHT? WELL LET'S LOOK AT ALL THE POTENTIAL SITUATIONS GOOD AND BAD..
1...BY JAN 2004 THE STOCKS IS ABOVE 30, YOU WILL HAVE BEEN PAID THE WHOLE $5397.00 AND THEY WILL TAKE YOUR STOCK AWAY FROM YOU AT THAT STRIKE AND PAY YOU $30,000...THAT MEANS IF YOU PAID 28,300 YOU GET AN ADDITIONAL $1,700.00 MORE TO ADD TO YOUR 5397..HENCE JUST ABOUT $7100.00 TOTAL RETURN FOR 1 YEAR..MAN THAT'S INCREDIBLE FOR THAT KIND OF INVESTMENT...DOES 25% RETURN RINGS ANY OF YOUR BELLS?????
2.---BY JAN 2004 THE STOCK IS "UNDER" 30 SAY AT YOUR SAME PRICE AROUND 28 BUCKS...THEN YOU GET TO "KEEP" YOUR 1000 SHARES AND THAT $5397.00..STILL ONE HELL OF A DEAL....AND CAN REWRITE THEM ALL OVER AGAIN..OH HOW SWEET IT IS<G>
3...THE STOCKS FALLS TO SAY 24...YOU STILL OWN IT BUT NOW YOUR UNDERWATER BY 4 POINTS, STILL COLLECTED THE 5397.00 AND CAN REWRITE THOSE JAN 2004 LEAPS BUT MAYBE THE 25'S OR 27.50'S?
YOU ARE FULLY COVERED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO WHAT YOU COLLECTED AND THAT'S CONVERTED INTO POINTS FOR THIS EXAMPLE AT 5.3 POINTS...SO YOUR COVERED BREAKEVEN...AT AROUND 23....MEANING IF THIS STOCK SELLS OFF ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 23 BY JAN 2004..YOU MADE AN EVEN STEVEN TRADE...AND STILL OWN THE 1000 SHARES..WHY? BECAUSE YOUR PROTECTED WITH THAT $5397.00 YOU RECEIVED...THAT'S YOUR DOWNSIDE PROTECTION...NO HARM NO FOUL...YOU HAVEN'T LOST ONE CENT, JUST 1 YEARS WORTH OF TIME...IS THIS WORTH THE RISK??? YOU TELL ME..I LIVE FOR THIS KIND OF RETURN YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT...
OK LET'S GET TO ALL THE INDEXES AND INDICATORS VERY CRUCIAL TIME IN THE MARKETS...
DJIA---THE CHART PATTERN TO ME LOOKS LIKE IT COULD TEST THE JULY 24TH LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS OR SO...A BREAK OF 8200 AT ANY POINT WILL BEGIN THIS EVENT..THERE IS MINOR S AT 8000 THEN STRAIGHT TO 7500...8400 IS A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP(3BXRVUP) 8550/8600 RESISTANCE(R) THERE....THE DOW BULLISH PERCENT IS IN O'S AT 48%...
NAZ/COMPX---FROM THE AUGUST 22ND HIGHS IT BROKE A RISING WEDGE TO THE DOWNSIDE AND HAS NEVER LOOKED BACK...WE BOTTOMED RECENTLY AT 1260 THEN RALLIED BACK UP TO 1340.. SO WE HAVE SOME S(SUPPORT) AT 1260 AREA. 1250 THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) BREAKDOWN, THAT WOULD LEAD TO 1200 FOR SURE...1350 WOULD COMPLETELY CHANGE THE NEAR TERM TREND...
SOX---THIS CHART IS VERY UGLY---I STILL HAVE 220 AS THE TARGET..IT MAY NOT BE THE FINAL ONE THO...OBVIOUSLY THIS WOULD NOT BE GOOD FOR THE NAZ...WE'RE ALREADY "BELOW" THE JULY LOWS FOLKS..CAN WE SAY WEAK? WITH NO LET UP IN SIGHT..NO ORDERS, AND NOTHING BUT PUSH OUTS SO FAR...270 STARTS THE MOVE DOWN, 295 A REVRSAL UP...BPSEMI IN O'S AT 16% COULD SEE 8%? A DOUBLE BOTTOM? WHEW!
BTK---IT'S PRETTY CLEAR TO ME THAT IF YOU LOOK AT THE DAILY CANDLE CHARTS(DCC) OF ALL THESE 4 INDEXES YOU CAN PLAINLY SEE WHAT'S GOING ON HERE...THAT DOJI TOP THAT FORMED ON EVERY INDEX HAS TO BE BROKEN TO THE UPSIDE...FOR ANY MEANINGFUL CHANGE OF TREND HERE TO OCCUR...THIS INDEX IS UNDERNEATH THE 20 & 40 EMA'S...320 IS DEADLY, 360 THE 3BXRVUP...330 IS/WAS DYNAMIC SUPPORT(S)...SO FAR<VBG>...BPBIOM IS IN O'S AND MOVING LOWER..
NDX---TERRIBLE CHART JUST AS WEAK AS THE REST...880 DB SELL SIGNAL...BREAKS THE JULY LOWS AT 850 SET ALERTS ON ALL THESE NUMBERS ON ALL THE INDEXS...940 THE 3BXRVUP 970 HEAVY R THERE..
SPZ2---THE SPOOS...I HATE TO SAY THIS BUT IF WE TAKE OUT 865 HERE I THINK IT BEGINS THE LONG JOURNEY DOWN TO THE JULY LOWS, THIS IS IMPORTANT AS THE FUTURES PULL THE STOCKS AROUND BY THE NOSE...IT HAS THIS SAME SYMMETRICAL LOOK THAT I PERCEIVE AS NEGATIVE. I DO NOT HAVE ANY TIME FRAMES FOR THIS MOVE..AND FOLKS IT MAY "NEVER" HAPPEN...IF WE BREAK 865 THEN WE SEE 825 QUICKLY AND THEN SEE U LATER...WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND NEAR TERM IS BREAK ABOVE 935...THIS INDEX ON THE DCC IS UNDER BOTH TIME FRAMES AND NEGATIVE FOR NOW..
OEX---RIGHT AT A CRITICAL AREA AT 440...435 IS THE DB BREAKDOWN AND A GREAT SHORT SALE TRIGGER(SST) THERE...IT COULD RALLY A BIT UP INTO OVERHEAD (O/H) R AT THE GAP ABOUT 450-60 AND THEN ROLL OVER...IF WE GET THERE I WILL BY PUTS FOR OCT/NOV...
SPX---JUST LET ME SAY THIS..ANY BREAK OF 870/865 IS NEGATIVE...930 IS THE DOUBLE TOP DB AREA...910 CLOSES THE GAP DOWN LAST WEEK....
VIX---INTERESTING CHART HERE...THE VIX DOUBLE TOPPED AT 44 RIGHT AT THE BSL LINE AND ROLLED OVER AND DOWN...ACTUALLY BROKE A RISING WEDGE...HIT 36 AND JUST LAST WEEK RALLIED UP HARD TO THE DESCENDING BRL(BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE)...AT 42...IT'S SITTING AT 39+ RIGHT NOW...IT'S TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK TOO BOOT<vbg>...SO HERE'S THE GAME PLAN..IF WE BREAK 39 ON MONDAY WE COULD TEST THAT DB AT 36 1ST...IF WE TAKE OUT THE TRIPLE TOP AT 45...44 IS THE TOP AND HEAVY R THERE...THAT WOULD BE ULTRA NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKETS...LOOKOUT THIS WEEK FOLKS..
VXN---THIS THING IS LIKE A ROLLER COASTER HUH? ROCKETS UP TO 59+ AND THEN CLOSES AT 55+ WHEW!...LOOK..IT'S VOLATILE AND WILD..SO BE COOL...THERE ARE 2 TESTS COMING THIS WEEK FOR SURE...61 THE TOP...62 IS NEGATIVE FOR THE MARKETS...53 THE BOTTOM 52 IS POSITIVE FOR THE MARKETS...WHICH WAY WILL IT GO???....
SO YOU HAVE THE NUMBERS SET ALERTS AND ADD SOME NOTES AS TO WHAT IT MEANS IF THIS OR THAT HAPPENS...AND BET YOUR WHOLE HOUSE THIS WEEK WILL ROCK...
HERE'S THE WATCH LIST OF STOCKS TO TRADE...LAST WEEK A SUBSCRIBER ASKED ME ABOUT A STOCK THAT TRIGGERED LONG EARLY IN THE WEEK USING MY SUNDAY BTL... HIT OVERHEAD R AND THEN BEGAN TO SELLOFF...THE SUNDAY TRIGGERS ARE FOR MONDAY DAYTRADING, AND SHOULD BE ADJUSTED BY YOU INTRAWEEK UNLESS I DO IT...THEY ASKED SHOULD WE "WAIT" FOR THE SST..I SAID NO...IT WAS A SHORT AT R..JUST AS I WROTE..
KLAC---THIS WAS THAT STOCK<G>....TRIGGERED A LONG, THEN HIT 35 RIGHT ON THE MONEY..IF YOU HAD THE NEWSLETTER INFO YOU COULD HAVE WHACKED IT RIGHT THEN AND THERE...FORMING A SMALL TRIANGLE HERE...32.50 A GOOD BUY TRIGGER LONG(BTL)...30.90 THE SST
CCMP---ONE FABULOUS TRADING STOCK...HIT S ON FRIDAY AND HAMMERED...THATS A DOJI A "GOOD" ONE<G>...45.15 THE BTL...43.25 THE SST AND ANY BREAK OF 42 IT TAKES IT TO THE BSL LINE AT 40ISH...IT HAS NOT BROKEN THAT LINE YET...
CHIR---INTERESTING DCC...IF WE BREAK 35 WE GO RIGHT TO TEST THE BSL AT 30 THEN MAYBE 27 THE JULY LOWS...WE'LL SEE...38.30 BTL...36.60 THE SST..WITH ANY BREAK OF 35 YOU STAY SHORT ALL THE WAY..TRAIL STOPS...
EBAY---RANGE BOUND FROM 52 THRU 62...I THINK IF IT BREAKS 57 IT TESTS 54 QUICKLY...KEEPS MAKING LOWER TOPS AND BREAKING THESE RISING WEDGIES...59.10 THE BTL...61 AND THE BRL SHOULD STOP THIS ADVANCE...56.90 A NICE SST...HOLD IT FOR MAYBE A NICE SLIDE DOWN...
MSFT---RIGHT AT THE BSL LINE AGAIN...46 IS SOLID S SO FAR...48.50 THE BTL...AND A GOOD ONE..SHOULD RUN IT UP TO 50ISH IF WE RALLY THIS WEEK...THAT'S A 3BXRVUP...BUT ANOTHER LOWER TOP TOO...46.75 THE GOOD SST...ANY BREAK OF 46 STAY SHORT...
CEPH---I LIKE TO TRADE THIS BIO TECH..BROKE DOWN OUT OF A RISING WEDGE AND HIT 41, BUT IT BROKE THRU THE BSL LINE IN DOING THAT..NEGATIVE TO ME...43.55 IS A PRETTY BTL...45 KEEPS YOU LONG...41.50 THE SST...A BREAK OF 40 KEEPS YOU SHORT HARD..
IDPH--IDENTICAL CHART AS CEPH ONLY LOOKS A BIT STRONGER TO ME...44.50 THE BTL...47 IS THE TRIPLE TOP AREA...CAN IT GET THERE???...42.70 THE SST...41 REV IT DOWN...
QLGC---JUST CASCADING LOWER AND LOWER...TERRIBLE LOOKING CHART PATTERN HERE...IN A REVERSE PENNANT ON THE DAILY WITH ANY BREAK OF 32/31 AS A BIG NEGATIVE...34.75 THE BTL---HEAVY O/H R AT THE BRL AT 37 IT COULD GET THERE...AND A GOOD SPOT TO SS...32.90 THE SST AND A GOOD ONE...
QCOM---IT'S RS IS IN A COL OF X'S AND REV UP...IT'S SHOWN SOLID RS ALL THRU THIS MESS...JUST TRADING IN A CHANNEL ON THE DCC SINCE MAY/JUNE...29.30 THE BTL....27.70 THE SST...
APOL---YOU HAVE TO REALLY GET TO KNOW THIS STOCK...IF YOU CHECK THE DCC HERE..EVERY SINGLE PULLBACK TO THE RISING 20 & 40 EMAS COULD HAVE BEEN BOUGHT...AND IN THIS MARKET ENVIRONMENT? THATS TRUE RS EVERYONE...IT TRADES GOOD EVERYDAY TOO BOOT...ALL THOSE FLAGS WERE BULL FLAGS...YOU CAN SEE THE RED PULLBACKS...WE GOT ONE LAST WEEK...IT'S SITTING RIGHT ON THE 20...43.50 THE BTL...45 KEEPS YOU LONG...41.75 THE SST...
INTU---VERY NICE DCC & P&F CHART TOO..TRYING TO HOLD HERE...48.25 THE BTL..TAKING OUT 49 KEEPS YOU LONG..50 IS HEAVY R AT THE TRIPLE TOP...46.15 THE SST...
EXPE--BEAUTIFUL CHART..IN A PENNANT HERE FOR NOW...54.75 THE BTL..WITH ANY BREAK OF 56 THE BUY SIGNAL ON P&F...STAY LONG, MARKET WILLING...52.60 THE SST...52 THE 3BXRVDN...
INTC---THIS CHART LOOKS LIKE THE SOX INDEX..LOUSY..IT HAS NO WHERE TO GO BUT DOWN..IF THE SOX BREAKS 270 THIS STOCK WILL FOLD...15.50 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 15 STAY SHORT...16.45 THE BTL...IF IT CAN GET ABOVE 17.50 HOLD IT...
IBM---IT'S SITTING RIGHT ON THE BSL LINE HERE AT 72...THERE'S GOOD S HERE FOR NOW..OF COURSE ANY BREAK OF THAT LINE AND THATS THE END OF THAT...73.60 THE BTL...WITH 75 THE 3BXRVUP...71.25 THE SST AND REAL TROUBLE IF IT CRACKS 70 A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK...NOT VERY GOOD..STAY SHORT FOR SURE...
RIG---WHAT WITH OIL AT VERY HIGH PRICES THIS STOCKS CHART LOOKS TERRIBLE..A DIVERGENCE FOR SURE..NEGATIVE RS TOO...21.50 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 20 STAY SHORT ALL THE WAY TO THE FIRES OF HELL<VBG>....22.70 THE BTL...NEEDS 25 TO CHANGE TREND..
BZH---DAMN THIS STOCK..I LOVED IT..KILLED ME...OH WELL!, SIGH<G>...3 CONSECUTIVE BUY SIGNALS BROKE THRU THE DREADED BRL AT 70 AND TOUCHED 73!!!!! I OWNED AT AT 68...OH ME OH MY...JUST REVERSED BACK DOWN HERE 4 BOXES...72.50 THE BTL...74 KEEPS YOU LONG HARD...70.35 THE SST...
GE---LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY TO FALL TO THE JULY 24TH LOWS...BROKE MAJOR S ON THE DCC...BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 28 SITTING AT 27 HERE...LOOKING BAD...26.45 THE SST...27.85 THE BTL..
BBH---VERY NEGATIVE CHART PATTERN ON P&F...BROKE A DOUBLE TOP AT 84 THEN PROMPTLY ROLLED OVER AND DOWN AND BROKE A DB AT 79..WHAT WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE BTK I BE CAUTIOUS HERE LONG..BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BTK HAS VERY STRONG S AT 330...SO FAR<G>...THE GENERAL DCC CHART HAS THE LOOK OF A HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP AND A REVERSE PENNANT FORMATION TOO..MAN THAT IS "NOT" GOOD.. ANY BREAK OF 77 IS DEATH AND DESTRUCTION...80.25 THE SST...YOU KNOW THE DRILL HERE NOW...82.40 THE BTL...84 THE DT AREA..
SMH---DOJI FRIDAY AFTER A SHORT RALLY...22.25 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 22 IS VERY VERY BAD FOR THE WHOLE DEAL...23.50 THE BTL...BOTH THE SOX AND THE SMH HAVE HARAMI'S ON FRIDAY...WITH THE TREND LOOKING LOWER...
OEX---FOR YOU OPTIONS TRADERS OUT THERE...IF THIS INDEX BREAKS 435 BUY THE OCT 435 PUTS...YOUR SST WOULD BE TAKING OUT FRIDAYS LOD...IF WE TAKE OUT FRIDAYS HOD AND TOUCH 447 TRY THE LONG SIDE BUT CAREFULLY..WATCH VOLUME OF COURSE...YOU COULD TRADE THE OCT 445'S OR FOR THAT MATTER EITHER OF THESE COULD BE 1-2 DAY PLAYS DURING SEPT<g> IF YOU HAVE THE BALLS..HAHAHAHAHAHAHA..ONLY USE FUNNY MONEY FOR SEPT..USE REAL MONEY FOR OCT...LOL....
WELL THATS ABOUT IT FOR THIS WEEK...PLEASE STAY FOCUSED HERE...YOU'LL BE WHIPSAWED OUT IF YOUR NOT ULTRA CAREFUL...TRY TO REDUCE YOUR LOT SIZE THAT YOU NORMALLY TRADE SO YOU DO NOT TRADE SCARED...I'M NOT KIDDING...AND IF YOUR TRYING TO BUY OR SELL SOMETHING THROW OUT AN OUTRAGEOUS PRICE EITHER WAY AND SEE IF YOU GET HIT...IT'S WILD OUT THERE FOLKS...
BEST REGARDS TO YOU ALL
JERRY |
