it looks like we go down to 1150 relatively quickly, maybe within a couple of days. is this the read you get?
theres a very good chance for that ork...heres why...
if you remember back in june i identified a battle zone on the retrace of 1330-1350....i called it the bagholder zone also....and as you can see....thats exactly what it was...
anyway...each leg down has that zone.....in this leg down its the 1130-50 area give or take a little....
now looking back at june.....
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20020605,20020928][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G
you see that first pierce of the important sept 1387 bottom....its the 1375....then a ramp in a few days to 1452....then it rolled over again for a few days and broke that 1375 and fell into the battle zone to 1336....
ok....now we just pierced the important 1192 july bottom...to 1169.....then a ramp in a few days to 1239....and we just rolled over again and pierced 1200....so a similar fate as june would get us a lower low and first dump into the new battle zone.....so your target 1150 area fits......
we also have a fast sto d-blow....since thats the weakest one....it could be good for a day or two down to new lows easy...before another ramp....thats why on friday i made that post when nasdaq was at 1215 or so that voodoo showed a good chance we head back down to the lows again...and soon after we went on to dump below 1200 again...
so i'll be watching that close.....
another interesting set up is developing....back in june....NDX broke sept lows first...then nasdaq....then spx....and dow last....
well...ndx and nasdaq made their new lows....but this time around....dow looks closer to breaking the july lows before the spx....
now why is that....one reason could be because most folks believe the spx 74 theory and most are watching that real close.....if spx breaks that july low with so many thinking a ramp is coming if spx holds.....they have to hold that up till the end because when that breaks pattern with so many believers....when it breaks all out panic can come....
but....they can pierce the dow here now and keep spx holding up longer....so the next ramp might come from a dow p&s....then....the perfect play for the end dump would be spx breaking the 74 pattern.....
so i figure spx needs to break last for that big final dump in this zone to 1000.....
so thats something to really watch close....many many eyes are on that 74 spx chart.....we have this timed out for end of october....
but if the spx breaks that july low before then....just beware that break with so many watching could speed up the dump....
lets just hope they keep the spx smoke and mirrors going for a few more weeks.....we still have retrace goo to work off....
but so many folks are looking for a reason why would we dump to 1000 here....
that spx 74 model breaking is a darn good reason to start a dump....too many believe in it....and they will all try and beat each other out the door when that model breaks...
and it should break....its the wrong model....
the only question is "when" will it break....
no matter....we are prepared for it..... |
