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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: D. Long who wrote (47880)9/29/2002 8:12:18 AM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
Bingo - First off Russia has already reached its peak oil production and can only be a painful but not life threatening distraction to OPEC nations. Time is on the side of OPEC nations as they hold most of the oil and many have not reached peaked production yet.

Iraq has been liquidating its oil assets for the last 12 years, who really thinks we are going to rush in and flip a switch and flood the market?

Realistically our interests are aligned with the other producers nations on the price of oil, we need a stable price of oil high enough to encourage continued development outside of OPEC. Low prices first destroy non OPEC supply which enhances OPEC control.

I suspect the Iraqi's will want to continue to be part of OPEC. Are we going to rush in and tell them they are free but they cant remain with their arab bothers in OPEC? Also without a stable price of oil $25 WTI, who will fund the reconstruction of Iraq's oil industry and everything else?

One goal of destroying Saddam is to gain leverage over the Saudi's. Even if it were possible to flip a switch in Iraq and flood the market with oil, this would not be a threat to the Saudi's it would be a death blow to their regime. Neither Norway, nor Mexico, nor Russia nor our own oil industry (workers in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alaska) would be happy with another cycle of low oil prices.
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