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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 683.70

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38128)	9/29/2002 1:28:13 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 68785

I am trying to catch up on the news while I was gone. I see upside announcements from RFMD and QCOM and down side announcements from TLAB, RBAK and ESST. What I don't see is any conference calls explaining these results. What is going on? Are they trying to save money by not having conference calls. That would be just crazy and it adds to the uncertainty as the analyses go off and speculate on what is really going on. On the surface, it looks like the strength in handset chip sales may only be seasonally related. The wireless business as stated by NT and confirmed by my research is soft right now. The UTMS business in Europe has not materialized and the demand for 3G services in Japan is weaker than expected. The TLAB and RBAK announcements would indicate the demand for last mile services is low right now. Considering the continued layoff and the contraction of business overall, this is no surprise. The bad press on the telcoms also makes it all but impossible for the carriers to borrow money to fund any kind of growth right now. The ESST announcement is scary for the consumer market. The ASP decline is in line to slightly above their guidance. This suggest the miss was solely due to reduced volumes. This is partially due to lost business, but even more concerning is the speculation that manufacturers are planning for a lousy Christmas selling season. As a result they are producing fewer product. Given that DVD was the one bright spot last Christmas and the lack of new killer products this Christmas this is not good news. Interesting point, if you don't sell that many DVD players do you end up sell more DVD's at least as more people look for more modest gifts and look to stay home more to conform to tight budgets. Some stocks to watch HLYW and MOVI. Anymore??

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