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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.540

-0.8%

12:37 PM EST

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To: posthumousone who wrote (20870)	9/29/2002 1:42:21 PM
From: David Hansen	Read Replies (2) of 21876

Post, Now is not the lowest we will see LU or this industry IMO... If you are not into this stock yet, you probably have 6 more months to sit on the side lines and watch for what happens to the industry and then you have another 6 months figuring out how to execute your entry point... Everything is the opposite it was 3 years ago. Instead of 15 minutes to ponder an entry point strategy, you have 12 months... We won't see positive momentum until excess vendor capacity is driven from the market. Every time you read about consolidation of product portfolios, layoffs, and companies being broken up and sold for their assetts, this is happening. Believe it or not, there is still a long way to go. The second thing to happen is the RBOCs need a successful strategy to make money again. Deregulation has exploded their ability to run their businesses like a utility. Washington will be slow to change anything for them because doing so would significantly raise prices for their voters (the consumers). I think raised prices will happen any way but it will just take longer as competition falls out of this space. Technology isn't ready to jump in and save the day because R&D budgets are on the wane... Eventually, there will be just a few vendors left who will largely have no competition. They will be able to raise prices on new technology. The carriers will consolidate and you will have 1 or 2 mega national carriers left. By that time the glut of equipment will be gone, new technology ala Fiber To The Home (FTTH)or even better: a 3G wireless solution that moves similar amounts of data without the wires or cables will be required. LU will be one of the few remaining vendors left that should be strategically positioned to be sole source in North America and a primary vendor internationally to supply product. Questions are: How long will this take? Could you make a whole lot more money investing in other areas? What are the risks? Telecom is dead, long live telecom!

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