Your BTE assumptions seem reasonable to me. IMO eventually someone will reorganize this thing to get the value out, and if current management doesn't do it, then somebody else will do it for them. There's good money to be made buying assets under P/CF3, even depleting ones.
My general review of the sector indicates that aside from the current dislike of equities in general, the Canadian market is assuming an oil price collapse, and also seems particularly disdainful of companies with high debt loads right now -- not that there isn't good reason to be concerned about debt service, but IMO the overly pessimistic pricing in of such fears is getting some of these stocks out of line.
While I wasn't all that enthused with the little guys in the summer when share prices were higher, I now feel that if you have the patience, a basket of junior and microcap cheapies might do well from here. The prevailing pricing assumption that oil will decline sharply once Iraq is 'under control' may not come true, or at least not on the scale that seems to have been built into a lot of these stocks.
IMO the aggressively negative assumptions currently reflected in most Canadian little guys offers up a risk-reward 'sweet spot', i.e. where the shares will probably rise if the awful things don't materialize, and having already discounted the worst, the shares should simply go nowhere if they do -- the equivalent of having a free call on the upside without an expiry date. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but an investor could put him/herself in a lot worse position these days - JMHO |
