Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Frank Pembleton who started this subject	9/30/2002 12:26:12 PM
From: el_gaviero	Read Replies (1) of 36161

One difficulty that hasn’t been mentioned so far is the political crisis in Japan. It is a political crisis with roots in an economic one: the dire straights of Japanese banks. I don’t know anything about Japan, but seems to me that no matter what happens over there, banks are going to need liquidity. Would that not mean that Japanese banks might start selling US treasure bills and other paper of ours that they hold in vast quantities? This paper is surely their most likely sources of liquidity. If they do start selling, then there is suddenly a source of upward pressure on our interest rates. If the pressure is strong enough actually to cause our rates to rise, then we’re toast – for all the reasons that we all know…..

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